The biggest risk for Ukraine after Donald Trump emerges victorious from the US presidential election is his promise to “resolve the conflict in 24 hours”.
This is what military expert Joakim Paasikivi tells TV4.
– It is basically taking the Russian plan for Ukraine’s capitulation and calling it something else.
Donald Trump in power could lead to reduced support for Ukraine, political pressure on the Ukrainian leadership and concessions to Russia, according to Paasikivi.
– It is dangerous. It gives a receipt to Russia that the whole project with the so-called “special military operation” paid off. It is part of the Russian ambition to change the security order to its advantage. Ukraine is not all of Russia’s project, it is much bigger than that.
Then the war would be stopped quickly
If Donald Trump were to ask his friend Elon Musk to shut down Starlink, it would be a death blow to Ukraine’s capabilities.
– But that does not mean that there are conditions for any kind of peace negotiation. That would make the Russian line on an upcoming desired Ukrainian capitulation come closer. But it is less likely that Ukraine would stop fighting.
Both Trump and his vice president JD Vance have painted a plan that is very similar to the Russian one, says Paasikivi. And he believes that Valdimir Putin is satisfied with the election results, although he did not want to congratulate Trump yet due to domestic political reasons.
– I think the champagne is flowing with Putin now.
“Must take much more responsibility”
When you cannot rely on the USA, Sweden and the rest of Europe must contribute more to NATO’s and Europe’s common defense. The situation is urgent, warns Paasikivi.
– For Europe, the election result means that we have to take much greater responsibility, we should have done that earlier, for our own security.
At the same time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was quick to congratulate Donald Trump, for them, good cooperation with the United States remains important, regardless of administration.
– It is not that all hope is lost now, but it is a difficult situation in terms of security policy, says Paasikivi.
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