Donald Trump is favorite in the Swing states this Wednesday morning: the results of the American presidential election could be changed quickly if the trend continues.
The bottom line:
- The still partial results of the American election place Donald Trump clearly in the lead. The evolution of the results can be followed in the map of the USA, which appears at the top of this article. For now, Donald Trump is sure of having 230 voters, Kamala Harris 205 out of the 270 needed for victory.
- The Republican is the big favorite now, he is in the lead in at least 6 of the 7 Swing States, particularly in North Carolina which he won, but also in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia. For now, nothing is decided, but Kamala Harris will need a historic turnaround.
- Donald Trump could speak before 7 a.m. French time, perhaps to announce his victory very early.
- The “chances of victory” calculated by the New York Times on a model based on exit polls and then on partial results in the USA, are in favor of Donald Trump. This morning he has a 90% probability of winning.
Live
06:04 – Kamala Harris wins Hawaii, a victory that makes no difference
Another small victory for Kamala Harris who wins the State of Hawaii according to the AP agency and NBC News who announce the results at 6 a.m. But this state only reports 4 electors, which brings the number of votes for the Democratic candidate to 209. Donald Trump is still given 230 electors.
05:48 – Kamala Harris in the lead in the state of Virginia
The Democratic candidate won 13 additional electors by obtaining a majority in the state of Virginia. With 83% of the ballots counted, the preliminary results give 51.2% of the votes for Kamala Harris. It thus counts 205 electors, and goes back a little. Donald Trump is still at 230 voters.
05:43 – Washington State also blue
The historically Democratic state of Washington is also assigned to the Democratic camp according to information from the AP agency. A victory which allows Kamala Harris to count 12 additional electors and increase to 205 votes.
05:41 – Kamala Harris gets New Mexico
Kamala Harris won the state of New Mexico and its 5 major electors. She was elected there with 52% of the votes, according to preliminary results (76% of the ballots counted).
05:38 – Kamala Harris wins Oregon and its eight electors
The counter goes up a little for Kamala Harris who wins Oregon and its eight electors according to the AP press agency which in fact attributes 192 votes to the Democratic candidate compared to 230 for Donald Trump.
05:22 – A first “Swing State” announces the color: red
North Carolina is the first of the pivotal states to define itself for one or the other candidate. While at the start of the forecasts, Kamala Harris seemed ahead, it is ultimately for Donald Trump that the electors will vote. An omen which does not bode well for the Democrat. His Republican opponent thus won 16 electors, which brings him to 230 according to an AP count. He only needs 40 more to win the electoral battle.
05:08 – A “red mirage”? Trump’s advantage is not confirmed
Donald Trump seems clearly the favorite now, but observers point out that it is normal at this time for the results to be in his favor: the votes of rural regions are counted first and the weight of large cities, clearly more Democratic, can change the situation. This is what happened 4 years ago, before Joe Biden finally won. It’s very likely that the results will tighten from here on out, but it’s not clear that it will be enough for Kamala Harris to win. The election still remains potentially close.
05:04 – Kamala Harris wins 66 electoral votes with California and Washington
California and Washington State elected Kamala Harris. These results were to be expected. The candidate thus wins 54 and 12 electors respectively. It thus totals 179 electors for the moment. It’s still behind compared to Donald Trump, who has 214.
04:42 – A victory for Donald Trump already celebrated on Fox News
On Fox News, commentators are already announcing and rejoicing about the “greatest comeback in history”, with a victory for Donald Trump. The newspaper The World notes the enthusiasm of the speakers on the American conservative television channel for the Republican candidate, who for the moment brings together 210 of the 270 voters necessary for his re-election, according to the Associated Press. They welcome the “bankruptcy of traditional media”.
04:39 – In Georgia, Trump is ahead with 88% of the votes counted
It could be the first Swing State to deliver its results, Georgia seems to be promised to Donald Trump: the Republican has more than 3 points ahead of Kamala Harris on 88% of the votes cast (51.3% against 48, 0%).
04:39 – Donald Trump could also win more votes nationally
Still the reference newspaper The Ney York Times, the so-called “probability” estimates lean towards a victory for Donald Trump with a higher score at the end of the election in number of votes across the entire electorate. For now, Donald Trump is nearly 5 million votes ahead of Kamala Harris (47 million against 42 million).
04:37 – Pennsylvania more Republican?
If Kamala Harris was in the lead during the very first estimates, Donald Trump ultimately returned to the lead. With 57% of the ballots counted, the preliminary results lean more towards the Republican, with 50.9% of the votes. The two candidates are more neck and neck than ever in this state, which could well be the key to winning the entire election.
04:21 – In Swing States, the forecast favors Trump
The New York Times provides trends in the 7 key states that will swing the election. For the newspaper, it is very likely that Donald Trump will win in the states of Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona. It looks to be tighter in the states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Wisconsin. But even in these 4 states, it is Donald Trump who is more likely to win according to the New York Times.
04:02 – 109 electoral votes for Kamala Harris with the addition of Colorado
Kamala Harris won Colorado and its 10 electoral votes, bringing the number of electoral votes already secured to 109. With almost half of the ballots counted, the Democratic candidate won 55.9% of the votes in this state.
04:00 – For the New York Times, Trump is now the favorite
The very serious and respected New York Timeswho is politically opposed to Donald Trump, has posted a projection model online with estimates for this 2024 American election. For the newspaper, Donald Trump has a 71% chance of winning this presidential election from now on. The major Eastern daily estimates that Donald Trump could end this election with 287 electors in the electoral college, while Kamala Harris would only obtain 251. Please note, this is a mathematical model: the crucial results have not fallen, those of the voters in the 7 key states, who will definitively change the results. In these key states, however, the New York Times considers it more likely that Donald Trump will win them overall.
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The projections made on the basis of the latest polls, broken down state by state, are undoubtedly the most relevant for having a vision of the most probable results of this American presidential election. Here is the map from the reference site “270 to win”, which gave this Wednesday, November 5, the projections of Democratic and Republican votes with the number of electors for Harris and for Trump:
In around ten states, the balance of power is more nuanced, these “Swing States” are therefore those which will swing the presidential election, because the one who wins the election there generally wins at the national level. Here are the latest voting intentions in the most important Swing States, according to the Real Clear Politics compilation :
| States | Donald Trump in % | Kamala Harris in % |
| Arizona (11 major voters) | 48.9 | 46.3 |
| Nevada (6 major voters) | 48.5 | 47.5 |
| Wisconsin (10 major voters) | 48.2 | 48.5 |
| Michigan (10 major voters) | 47.7 | 48.6 |
| Pennsylvania (19 electors) | 48.3 | 48.0 |
| North Carolina (16 major voters) | 48.8 | 47.3 |
| Georgia (16 major voters) | 49.3 | 47.4 |
- If Kamala Harris manages to secure 44 electoral votes from swing states, she will be elected president.
- Donald Trump needs 51 electors among these 7 states to win this presidential election.
How do American elections work?
The American electoral system is complex. It is based on an indirect system where citizens do not elect their president directly, but electors who then meet to choose the head of state. This “electoral college” has 538 members, corresponding to the total number of senators and representatives in Congress, as well as three electors for the District of Columbia. Each state has a certain number of electors, allocated according to the size of its population.
In presidential elections, which take place every four years, citizens vote at the beginning of November. The candidate who wins the majority of votes in a state, according to the “winner-takes-all” rule, obtains all the electors of that state, with the exception of Maine and Nebraska, which distribute their voters proportionally. The candidate having received at least 270 voters wins the presidential election.