We remember that Donald Trump’s first presidency caused a stir within the European institutions in Brussels. Many fear a withdrawal, a return to an isolationist United States in the event of the victory of the Republican candidate. On the other hand, the far-right and conservative parties could feel themselves growing wings with a president like Donald Trump.
3 mins
from our correspondent in Brussels,
Indeed, we saw the number of conservative or far-right elected officials increase again during the European elections last June. And it’s not just Viktor Orban who is the most fervent supporter of Donald Trump on the continent. It could also legitimize the action, for example, of Giorgia Meloni in Italy. We know that in France, the president of National Rally Endorses American Patriotism by Donald Trump. This could also give impetus to the former Prime Minister’s Bulgarian GERB Boyko Borissov in Poland, to PiS, the Law and Justice party in Poland.
Also readHungarian ultraconservatives Orban and Italian Meloni strengthen ties without reaching an agreement
But we also think of Scandinavia, the Party of True Finns, the Democrats in Sweden, in short, all the isolationist, sovereignist parties, the anti-immigration programs, the programs to spend less on common defense, could regain momentum. beast.
Also readEuropeans 2024: surge of the far right, political earthquake in France
The immediate concern of Europeans is to find themselves alone against Russia
This is the famous “geostrategic pivot”. We know very precisely, since the first presidency of Barack Obama, that the United States’ priority is to pivot its strategic attention from one coast to the other of the Atlantic towards the Pacific to face China and with Donald Trump.
The idea is to let the Europeans manage against Russia in order to have a free hand against China, at the cost of an unfavorable peace for the Europeans who, for the moment, do not have the means to compensate. the billions paid by the United States, even as it increased its own defense spending. On the other hand, it could give new impetus for European defense. This is what the most optimistic hope for, because for the moment, the only tangible measure taken by the Europeans is to have appointed the former Dutch Prime Minister as head of NATO. Mark Rutteknown as the man who whispers in Trump’s ear. He has already succeeded in opposing and cajoling the former president.
The European economy risks suffering
In the longer term, Europeans fear for their economy which risks being hit very hard if Donald Trump returns with his customs barrier program against Chinabut also against Europe. Because 60% customs barriers against China could also divert all trade flows towards Europe. Europe would have 20% customs duties towards the United States. And that too would be very damaging for the European economy. Who would therefore see themselves overwhelmed by Chinese imports. And then, obviously, there are other fears. Fears for the Paris agreement which would once again give wings to those in Europe who want to call into question the European Green Deal.
Also readOne week before the COP, the American election weighs on climate diplomacy