In the home stretch of the US presidential election, Donald Trump’s campaign continued to descend into darkness. During his final meetings, the former Republican president, who still claims without any proof that victory was stolen from him in 2020, increased the allegations of fraud concerning the current election. He also continued to lash out against his adversaries: for example, proposing, in an ambiguous formula, to put Liz Cheney – a former Republican party executive who became a supporter of Kamala Harris – whom he accuses of being a “radical hawk “, “facing cannons shooting at him”. And repeatedly insisting that Kamala Harris was “respected by no one” and that she had “a low IQ”.
In recent months, he has also likened his political opponents to “internal enemies” considered more dangerous than the North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un; threatened to take “revenge” on them by suing them, to send the army against left-wing demonstrators; and promised to expel “millions” of irregular migrants who are “poisoning the blood” of the country… To complete this dark picture, Mark Milley, former chief of staff of the armed forces, believes that his former boss is ” fascist to the core. As for John Kelly, his former chief of staff, he also considers that Trump corresponds to this qualifier and that he “certainly prefers the dictatorial approach in the way of governing”. Not to mention his admiration for Hitler, who, according to the billionaire, “did good things”, reports General Kelly.
Priority to the economy
Despite all these abuses, known to all, almost half of American voters are preparing to vote for the former president. If pollsters are to be believed, the Republican base is less concerned about the erosion of democracy than about two subjects: the economy and immigration. And on these two priority issues, she judges Trump more convincing. “For the Republican base, the main issue is the American economy, inflation. This population is all the less worried about democracy since Trump has been targeted by assassination attempts. An alternative story “is imposed on this subject: it is Trump that we are trying to assassinate, not democracy”, explains Jérémy Ghez, professor of economics and international affairs at HEC.
However, among Grand Old Party sympathizers, not everyone is conspiratorial or fanatic like MAGA (“Make America Great Again”) activists. There are also more traditional Republicans, respectful of institutions, and who nevertheless are ready to vote for a leader who attempted a coup in 2021. How do they justify this big gap? “To reassure themselves, these serious Republicans, often conservative and pro-business (seduced in particular by the promises of tax cuts), are in total denial and use the Coué method: we must not believe the caricature made by the press of Trump, the country survived a first mandate, there will be checks and balances…, notes historian Françoise Coste Out of patriotism, they also have absolute faith in the strength of American institutions, which will certainly be able to resist. to a second Trump storm”. The party is in unison with this speech: “it affirms that its candidate is a serious political figure, who will restore America’s prosperity and greatness, and that we should not take everything he says seriously. The Democrats say exactly the opposite: it is the basis of divorce within American society,” adds Jérémy Ghez.
However, there is nothing to confirm that the scenarios putting the danger into perspective will come true. Seen from the outside, the bet made by these traditional republicans, which amounts to playing roulette for the democratic future of their country, seems crazy. Certainly, Trump did not achieve during his mandate everything he had promised – starting with his famous wall on the southern border. And he achieved some successes, such as the Abraham Accords, between Arab states and Israel.
MAGA advisors without limits
But the context has changed. To begin with, the Republican has had time to build up a bodyguard selected above all for its loyalty and who share his ideas. “In 2016, Trump was not ready. He had to surround himself with former senior officials and generals close to the Republican Party. All these great servants of the State, who had limited the damage during the first term, did not will not return, many being very critical. They will be replaced by “MAGA” advisors, often very young and who owe him everything, like his advisor Stephen Miller or celebrities, with no experience in politics, like Elon Musk. “He’s going much further with his rhetoric and his lies than in the past, and he’s not kidding. He has the advisors he needs to do what he wants. And they’re as extreme as he is. Or even more so. This time he there will be no one to prevent it, for example, from leaving NATO,” adds Jacob Heilbrunn, who directs the geopolitics review The National interestin Washington.
This is not the only guardrail that was blown. Trump also upset the balance at the Supreme Court to his advantage, by appointing conservative judges – since then, the institution has removed the right to abortion at the federal level and allowed it, by recognizing a certain degree of immunity to abortion. ex-president, that his federal trial be postponed.
To make matters worse, the geopolitical environment is also much more dangerous and uncertain than in 2016, with two wars: in Europe and the Middle East. Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, Trump’s running mate JD Vance believes that “it is not in America’s interest to continue to finance an endless war.” However, it is the credibility of the West that is at stake, facing Vladimir Putin’s Russian army. Certainly, a few rare figures, such as former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, oppose this isolationist trend. But nothing says that they will be able to impose their views on a Trump galvanized by his victory.
Above all, Trump has already, in a very concrete way, tried to attack democratic institutions, by encouraging the invasion of the Capitol on January 6, 2021 and by contesting the result of the elections. And there’s nothing to suggest that he won’t do it again. In this context, betting that America will self-regulate if Trump is elected seems irresponsible. “As president of the United States, he has immense destructive power, and he is determined and angry. If he is elected, there will be chaos, both inside and outside the United States, with trade wars and military conflicts that will remind us of the 1920s and 1930s,” worries Jacob Heilbrunn. He already warned that he wanted to be a dictator on his first day in office. He says what he wants to do: he’s not a complicated man.” The Americans have been warned. They will ignore the threat at their peril.
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