Arizona is one of the key states in the US presidential election. Donald Trump has a slight lead, but nothing has been done yet. This swing state could tip the balance at the last moment.
Find the latest trends and polls on the American election
Swing states are key states in the race for the White House. Among them, Arizona and its 11 electors, who could swing the result of the election. On the eve of “election day”, Donald Trump leads the polls in this state with 1.6 points ahead of Kamala Harris according to the compilation of polls from 270towinbut with 2.6 points more than its rival according to the average calculated by the aggregator RealClear. Donald Trump is credited with more than 48% of voting intentions while the Democratic candidate is given around 46%.
Still, the polls have changed significantly in Arizona since the end of July, when Joe Biden was still in the race. This summer, all the polls gave Donald Trump the winner in this state bordering Mexico. The Republican candidate garnered between 40% and 49% favorable opinions, while the current president was only able to convince 37% to 45% of the inhabitants of this state, according to 270towin. Kamala Harris has therefore advanced the Democratic camp in the polls, but winning against Donald Trump seems difficult.
Voting began almost a month before the election date
Unlike the French system, it is possible to vote in advance in the United States. The vote is due to take place on November 5, but the city of Phoenix, capital of Arizona, has been the scene of voting since October 9. Democrats and Republicans are calling on residents to vote as soon as possible, despite Donald Trump’s reluctance. In this key state, voting early allows voters to avoid waiting in line for several hours on the official election day. Especially since several time zones crisscross the country, which means that the results trickle down on election day. Voting in advance allows you to have an estimate of the final result before the end of the vote count.
What are the voting habits of voters in Arizona?
To get an idea of the outcome of the vote in Arizona, it is interesting to look at the results of previous presidential elections. During the 2020 election, it was Joe Biden (Democrat) who came in first with only 0.3 points difference with Donald Trump. Before that, Arizona had electoral habits leaning very clearly towards the Republican side. Before the victory, narrowly obtained, of Joe Biden, we had to go back to 1996 for the Democratic candidate William Clinton to emerge victorious in the election in this state. And before him, the last Democrat to have had a majority was Harry Truman in 1948. Given these results, a victory for Donald Trump in this state would not be surprising and would remain in line with the votes of recent decades.