Above all, in the election to the House of Representatives, it is hair-raisingly even. According to FiveThirtyEight’s calculation the Republicans have a narrow advantage in the battle to win a majority of the seats.
All 435 seats are up for re-election and it is the Democrats who must convert the most to regain the majority in the chamber. The vast majority of seats appear to be retained by the incumbent. But in fewer than 30 districts, it is so even in the opinion polls that it is not possible to nail down who will win in advance.
In six of them, it’s essentially a dead race, according to FiveThirtyEight. Three of those districts are in liberal California. Many eyes are also on New York’s 19th district, where Democrats lost the midterm elections by just over 4,000 votes. Now the same candidates are pitted against each other again and there are many indications that it could be at least as even this year.
Democrats must flip six districts to win a majority. It is also based on them keeping all the places they currently have. For the Republicans, it is important not to lose too many seats.
Probable power shift in the Senate
In the Senate, things look much darker for the Democrats. There, the Republicans look to be heading for a relatively clear win. According to FiveThirtyEights simulation, the Republicans win the Senate 9 out of 10 times – that would mean the Democrats lose control of the important chamber.
The reason the Republicans seem headed for a grand slam in the Senate is because not all 100 seats are up for re-election, but only a third. Several of those seats are held by Democrats in traditionally Republican states.
In Montana and West Virginia, for example, they have had a Democratic senator and a Republican, and now the Democrat’s seat is at stake. In both Montana and West Virginia, the Republican opponent leads by a large margin.
If the wind blows right for the Republicans, they can therefore look forward to a majority in both houses of Congress.
It could be devastating for Kamala Harris if she is elected president but all the better for Donald Trump if he wins.
Hear why the congress is so important in the video.