In New York, despite Democratic domination since 1988, Trump’s supporters are hoping for a shift, although the numbers still lean in favor of the Democrats. Meanwhile, in Texas, the influx of Californians is raising concerns among Republicans, who have ruled the state for nearly 50 years.
3 mins
The State of New York could have a more important role in these elections, reports our correspondent in New York, Carrie Nooten. It is a state that has voted for the Democratic candidate in each of the nine presidential elections since 1988. However, the MAGA (“Make America Great Again”) clan of Donald Trump claims to have gained ground and dreams of “ win » Big Apple. This is also why the Republican candidate organized his last major campaign meeting in New York, his city, after all.
Steven, a 24-year-old African-American from the rather modest neighborhood of the Bronx, is preparing to vote again for Donald Trump. And he is convinced: his favorite could win.
“ Food prices have gone up, gas prices have gone up, the cost of daily living has gone up dramatically. And it’s not comfortable, especially in New York, where things are already expensive. You realize you were comfortable in the Trump era, but not with Kamala », explains Steven. Are more people voting for Donald Trump than eight years ago? “ Much, much more, yeah. A drastic increase “, he assures.
However, the figures remain in favor of Kamala Harris. It would lose 2.5 points compared to the result achieved by Joe Biden 4 years ago, but the trend of 60-40 remains similar to the last nine elections.
On the other hand, the real issue is control of the House of Representatives. It will be decided here, based on the outcome of half a dozen competitive districts. Democrats blamed New York for losing control of the House in 2022, when a number of districts flipped from blue to red. More muscular face-to-face encounters are therefore in prospect.
Also readAmerican presidential election: the success of advance voting does not suggest the result
Texas, a new California?
This is one of the fears of the Republican Party: that Texas, a historically red state and in the hands of Republicans since 1976, will become the new California, a historically blue state, because Texas is in fact the preferred destination for Californian migrants. , reports our correspondent in San Antonio, Théo Quintard.
Nearly 520,000 people registered to vote in California moved to Texas between 2004 and 2020, according to a recent study from the Universities of Maryland and Austin.
And if the attraction for Texas is above all financial, many end up becoming disillusioned, as Christy Woodard, professor of political science at San Antonio College, explains. “ Some of them think they will save a lot of money by moving to Texas. It doesn’t take long for them to realize that even though they don’t pay income tax here, they end up paying a lot more in property tax “, says Christy Woodard
For Christy Woodard, Texas is not going to change color. At least, not right away. “ They like to show us in red. But that’s only because of the electoral college where the winner takes the whole state. Texas is already purple. We’re going blue, but that’s based on the growth of the Latino population here and the fertility rate », she analyzes.
According to Texas demographers, by 2050, up to 20 million people will have chosen to settle in Texas, a large proportion coming from California.
Also readAmerican presidential election: last weekend of campaigning for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump