Fastest growing electorate in the US • The new working class • Can decide the election
In the great country of the United States, campaign workers, politicians and journalists are obsessed with demographics and dividing people into constituencies: working-class whites, college-educated blacks, suburban women, and so on.
But one group has long been counted only as a large unit: Voters with a Hispanic background, Latinos, as the group is called here. This despite the fact that it is extremely diversified. And the fastest growing, which can now really decide elections.
Historically voted democratic
Latinos have historically voted overwhelmingly Democratic. But as the group went from mainly consisting of first-generation immigrants, to now containing young voters from the second, third, fourth generation, there has been a shift. A shift that should worry Kamala Harris, says Mike Madrid, an expert on this constituency and himself Latino.
– The Latino voters are the new working class in the United States and they therefore increasingly vote as the white working class does, that is, Republican, he says.
Mike Madrid is one of America’s real authorities on Latino voting behavior. He has worked as a strategist for both political parties. He believes that the Democrats have been too focused on ethnicity and overlooked the class perspective.
Economy and safety important
– After Obama, there was a belief within the Democratic Party that all non-white voters will forever vote Democrat. But that has not happened, rather the exact opposite. This group cares much more about financial issues and security.
According to public opinion, Harris leads, nationally, by twelve percentage points over Donald Trump among Latinos. That’s a sliver of the 44 percentage points Obama won the electorate by 2012 or the 33 percentage points Biden won by 2020. Among Latinos under 45, even Trump leads Harris by 17 percentage points, according to a Siena/NY Times poll.
There are important dividing lines
In recent days, the statement made by a comedian about Puerto Rico, at a campaign rally for Donald Trump, has been widely discussed and debated. The comedian called Puerto Rico an island of garbage. Something the Harris campaign hoped would turn Latino voters away from Trump. But here there are some important dividing lines to draw, says Mike Madrid.
– Puerto Ricans are not migrants. Puerto Rico is a US territory, so it has nothing to do with second, third generation Mexican immigrants. And when Trump uses harsh rhetoric to attack migrants, Latino voters don’t think that’s who Trump is talking about. They are not illegal migrants, after all, they grew up here in the United States and increasingly identify with their class affiliation rather than their ethnicity.
– Donald Trump’s only way to victory is by increasing his share of Latino voters. And I wouldn’t be surprised if that happens, concludes Mike Madrid.