Ukrainian forces have been forced into a tight spot on the eastern front. There may be a significant turning point in the war ahead.
About a week ago, Russian troops launched a major offensive in the southern part of the Ukrainian war front, west of Vuhledar, with their armored forces.
Analyst at the Black Bird Group, which follows open source war Pasi Paroinen says that the Ukrainian front broke locally and that Russia advanced up to ten kilometers in a week.
– In the worst case, we are at the point where the collapse is taking place locally, says Paroinen.
The coming week will show if the Ukrainians can keep the front together or if it is a breakthrough.
– In this case, the Ukrainian positions were clearly broken into, But the fact that one could talk about a breakthrough, then one would also have to move through the positions quite quickly into the depth, Paroinen describes.
The situation of the Ukrainian army is constantly getting more and more difficult, says Paroinen. Russia will be able to take over land faster than ever during the war since the summer of 2022, he says. With the progress that has now taken place, the Russians have gained control of the hilly terrain, from which it is even easier to continue the attack down the gentle slope.
How is the Ukrainian army?
The area of Donetsk in question is mainly open arable land, which is not of great strategic importance. It is more important to draw attention to the state of the Ukrainian army.
Russia is able to constantly shift the focus of its attack. Russia is looking for weak points in Ukraine, where to target the attacks.
The Ukrainian army is suffering from an ever-worsening manpower shortage, Paroinen says. The army lives, as it were, from hand to mouth.
Ukraine has no reserves, but it has to detach a unit capable of resistance from the front, which creates a weak point for it.
According to Paroinen, the partial implementation of the business carried out by Ukraine in the summer has failed. Not enough men have been sent to the front, and now soldiers are being searched for anywhere.
Paroinen also criticizes Ukraine’s way of constantly establishing new brigades from newly trained men. The new brigades are completely inexperienced when they go to the front. At the same time, the old brigades of experienced troops are used up instead of being replenished with new soldiers.
Although Russia does not achieve great strategic successes by attacking in Donetsk, it is constantly wearing down Ukraine’s forces.
Will the North Koreans come to Kursk?
In Paroinen’s opinion, the Ukrainian operation on Russian soil in the Kursk region is now working in Russia’s favor. Ukraine defends the territory it captured from Kursk with its best forces. Russia will gradually be able to use up defenders, which would be needed in Donetsk, for example.
– It’s actually a good fight for them [venäläisille]. Good Ukrainian troops in a rather disadvantageous position. It’s a good consumer battle for them and it will continue.
Paroinen also ponders what role has been thought about for the North Korean soldiers apparently coming to the Kursk area.
– Will they be used as a strong strike unit in some direction, or will they be used in quieter sectors to free the Russians from there?
The goals of the Russians
Paroinen believes that Russia will continue its gradual advance on a broad front.
In the Donetsk region, the main target will be the city of Pokrovsk, which is a traffic hub. Pokrovsk was the target of the Russians already in the summer, but Ukraine mostly managed to stop Russia’s advance in this direction. Losses of men and equipment were high on both sides.
According to Paroinen, Russia is trying to blockade the southern part of Pokrovski.
Another important fortress city in Ukraine is Kurahove, which, according to Paroinen’s estimate, will have to surrender within a few weeks. Before the war, the town of around 18,000 inhabitants has turned into a fortress supporting the eastern front during the war.
Paroinen is now particularly watching whether Russia will be able to continue its success on the southern front or whether the attackers will have to stop and catch their breath. He is also interested in how Ukraine can restrain Russia’s advance, for example by moving troops from somewhere else.
If Russia’s onslaught continues, the war may turn into a war of motion, where the front lines become blurred. It is even more difficult for a tired defender.
If Ukraine had the ability to counterattack, mobile warfare could bring it an advantage, but according to Paroinen, all Ukrainian forces capable of counterattacks are either stuck in Kursk or exhausted.