“Kamala Harris made a huge mistake that could cost her the election” – L’Express

Above all, don’t ask him to get wet. Pollster and consultant Whit Ayres has far too much experience to fall into the trap of predictions, especially a few days before an extremely indecisive American presidential election. At the head of North Star Opinion Research, he provides his advice and analysis to Republican candidates across the United States, where he has had his share of renowned clients: senators Marco Rubio and Lindsey Graham, and the governor of Florida Ron DeSantis.

For L’Express, Whit Ayres says what he thinks about the reliability of current polls after the huge failures of 2016 and 2020. And lists the issues that will make the difference at the polls on November 5.

One week before the presidential election, the polls give the candidates a tie. In previous campaigns, the vote for Donald Trump was underestimated each time. Does this make the Republican the clear favorite?

I don’t think so, no. When we predict an election this close, no one is a favorite. Of course, the polls may again underestimate the vote for Donald Trump, but we won’t know until the count, not before.

In 2020, Joe Biden had an eight-point lead in opinion studies but ultimately won by a very narrow margin. Have the polling institutes progressed in four years?

Quite. We worked very hard to correct what was wrong. But we will only know if our efforts have paid off when we see the results. We were especially careful to include an appropriate number of white voters without a degree in our samples, since this is an electorate that was largely underrepresented before 2016.

Another area of ​​improvement concerns the means of reaching voters: we no longer just call them on their landlines or even on their mobile phones, we send SMS to get them to complete our online questionnaires.

You work for the campaigns of Republican candidates locally and for Congress. Is the presence of Donald Trump an asset or a handicap for these candidates? After nine years on the political scene, has it become “normalized”?

Trump has never been and never will be a “normal” candidate. For local Republican candidates, it can be an asset or a liability, depending on the district in which they are running. In some corners, it is impossible to be Republican and anti-Trump, as pro-Trump sentiment dominates the local scene. But in pro-Harris regions, we help Republican candidates run more centrist campaigns, in which they must clearly distance themselves from Donald Trump: it’s a balancing act to bring together both independents and the whole of the Republican vote. These are the most difficult campaigns to run.

What will be the most important issue on Americans’ minds when they vote on November 5?

It all depends on their political party. For Republicans, the most important issues are the economy, inflation, immigration and insecurity. For Democrats, it’s abortion, the economy and the survival of democracy.

Seen from Europe, the American economy appears to be in great shape. However, inflation could undermine Kamala Harris’ candidacy. How much can the economic situation harm it?

We suffered enormous inflation during the Biden-Harris administration, the highest in forty years. Of course, the numbers are much lower today than at its peak. But prices are not going down: $100 worth of groceries in 2019 costs $125 today. This is a crucial factor for the most vulnerable who live “paycheck to paycheck”, from one weekly salary to another.

It’s much harder to make ends meet today than when Donald Trump was president: food is more expensive, gas is more expensive, rent is more expensive, everything is more expensive. For Republicans, inflation and immigration are two very easy targets.

You mentioned the survival of democracy among the reasons that will push Democrats to vote. Can Kamala Harris’ strategy, which calls Donald Trump a fascist, work?

Kamala Harris calling Trump a fascist does not seem like an appropriate strategy to convince undecided voters. On the other hand, when former high-ranking members of the Trump team, his chief of staff, his secretary of defense or his chief of staff, start calling him a fascist, it has a much greater impact on the undecided voters. These people worked closely with him, day and night, and are therefore much more credible in calling him a fascist. This is not just a gratuitous insult.

So some Americans have not yet formed their opinion on the undemocratic character of Donald Trump?

There are only a handful left, a very small handful of undecided voters. But they could be convinced by the testimonies of former Trump relatives.

Before Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race, you described his vice-president as the second major handicap in his candidacy, after his great age. In this context, how do you judge Kamala Harris’ express campaign?

I think she did a pretty remarkable job with the little time she had and the pressure inherent in a presidential campaign. However, Kamala Harris made a serious mistake in choosing her vice president [NDLR : Tim Walz, le gouverneur du Minnesota] : she should have chosen a running mate from one of the seven pivotal states to help her win votes in the electoral college.

But no, she selected a vice-president elected in a state that has voted Democratic for half a century and which will not bring her a single major voter… Kamala Harris could have chosen Josh Shapiro, the very popular governor of Pennsylvania, and left with the immense advantage that constitutes the 19 electors of this state. She made a huge mistake, which could cost her the election.

As a political consultant, what advice would you give to each campaign in this final stretch?

They must continue to hammer home their strongest and most impactful messages. As for Kamala Harris, she should show a much more concrete vision of what her presidency would be and in particular prove that she will not govern as much to the left as her program during the 2020 Democratic primaries suggests. Donald Trump, on the other hand, must sow doubt about Kamala Harris’s way of governing and her centrist positioning. He must continue to show that she would be a very, very left-wing president, disconnected from the majority of Americans.