Next November 5 could well be the closest presidential election in American history. One week to the day before the fateful date, no winner seems to emerge in the polls. On the contrary, according to the voting intention aggregator, FiveThirtyEightthe race for the White House would even become closer and closer. As of October 29, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris is leading the polls, with a shy score of 48.1% compared to 46.7% for her Republican rival. Last week, the current vice-president of the United States enjoyed 48.2% support, while Donald Trump was slightly behind with 46.4%.
The Democrat, however, had a decisive lead until the September 10 debate between the two candidates, before it began to crumble in mid-October. Today, Kamala Harris concedes her smallest lead since mid-August. According to a survey by New York TimesDonald Trump would even have risen to 48% in voting intentions, compared to 49% for the Democrat.
A margin of error
While national polls tend to balance out, those in key states could well add a dose of uncertainty. According to FiveThirtEight, the vice-president would be leading in Michigan with a lead of 0.7 points. Wisconsin, Nevada and Pennsylvania would be the scene of a real neck and neck between the candidates, placing them tied in the polls. Finally, the billionaire would still be designated 47th President of the United States in Arizona with 1.8 points more than his rival, in Georgia with 1.5 points, as well as in North Carolina with 1.2 points. A comfortable lead in these three states likely to decide the presidency, but insufficient given the inexorable margin of error in the polls.
According to the New York Timesbetween 1988 and 2020, the ultimate estimate of national polls was wrong by 2.3 points on average. A margin of error which could swing the tide of the 2024 presidential election. Especially since in 2016 and 2020, almost all of the averages of the polls carried out at the level of each State had underestimated the support of the voters brought to Donald Trump.
According to the report of a professional organization of polling institutes, highlighted by the New York Timesthe main cause of these margins of error would be the failure to take into account the level of education of voters. In 2016, polls overrepresented voters with higher education and underestimated those who did not. But in 2016, as in the years that followed, voters without college degrees were among the main supporters of Republicans, and more particularly, Donald Trump. However, since then, analyzes have shown that the margins of error work in favor of Republicans as well as Democrats, further complicating forecasts.
Precious voices
To win, the candidates have no other solution: they must establish a comfortable lead in the polls. Starting with winning the support of African-American and Hispanic voters, valuable ethnic minorities to capture the Oval Office. On November 5, nearly 36 million Latin American voters are expected to go to the polls. A community increasingly seduced by the Republican camp. According to the New York Times37% of Hispanics would intend to vote for Donald Trump next month, compared to 28% in 2016. Conversely, 56% of the ethnic minority would be decided to support the Democrats this year, compared to 68% in 2016.
Same observation for black voters. 7% of them voted Republican in 2016 compared to 15% currently, and 92% voted Democratic in 2016 compared to 78% in 2024. And this, despite the accumulation of racist remarks made by the Republican camp. On October 27, during Donald Trump’s closing meeting at Madison Square Garden in New York, comedian Tony Hinchcliffe compared the American territory Puerto Rico to “a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean.” One of Donald Trump’s advisors, Stephen Miller, proclaimed that “America [était] for Americans and Americans only”. Racist outings which could perhaps cost the Republican candidate dearly.