Analysis: “Suburban women may be Harris’ only chance to win”

Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have one thing in common: Pennsylvania is one of the states that both visited the most times during the election campaign. And Pennsylvania is the area that almost entirely determines Harris’ political future and is currently flooded with political advertising.

Together, the parties have invested over two billion kroner in various efforts to influence voters in the state. That says something about Pennsylvania’s importance.

The economy in the center

Pennsylvania is a state characterized by a powerful industrial transition. Steel, coal and the heavy industry that drove economic development in the state have disappeared in many places and this affects the voters affected by unemployment and poverty. Therefore, the most important issues for voters are the economy and jobs.

The energy policy is also absolutely decisive in many parts of the state. Pennsylvania has huge gas deposits, and extraction through fracking (hydraulic fracturing) has become extremely important to hard-pressed farmers who can now lease parts of their lands to exploration companies. But the method is environmentally sensitive.

The candidates’ message

Donald Trump is seen by many voters here as a politician with the power to change the tough economic reality many face. Trump has once again promised employment back in sparsely populated areas and stands behind Pennsylvania’s natural resources being fully utilized.

The assassination attempt that Trump was subjected to in Pennsylvania has also brought him closer to many conservatives. Kamala Harris raises the abortion issue to attract more female voters and promises a more robust education system, but her previous statement about wanting to ban “fracking” hurts Harris even though she now says she supports continued extraction. The problem is, many in Pennsylvania don’t trust her.

Focus on suburban voters

The big cities are where the liberal voters are and the big cities are strong democratic strongholds. Out in the rural areas, there are all those with conservative values, who clearly stand behind Donald Trump and have a strong distrust of the traditional government in Washington.

Therefore, it is the suburban voters that the campaigns direct their greatest interest towards. Not least against the female voters. The candidates’ ability to motivate voters in Pennsylvania’s shifting political landscape will determine the outcome here.

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