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Global warming, which increases the frequency of forest fires, is directly responsible for a growing share of deaths linked to the pollution caused by these fires, suggests a study published Monday on the basis of several models.
“The effects of climate change on (…) fire-related mortality have been evident for 60 years and are continuously increasing“, summarize the authors of this study published in the journal Nature Climate Change.
Climate change tends to increase the frequency of forest fires across the world, although this trend is not uniform due to the variable consequences of warming temperatures.
Fires increase fine particle pollution which, in turn, harms health and contributes to numerous deaths.
The authors of the study therefore sought to determine to what extent global warming could, as such, be linked to these deaths, over a period from the 1960s to the present.
To do this, they ran several computer models that compare historical reality to a hypothetical situation where climate change would not have existed.
They argue that more than 10,000 deaths were linked in the 2010s to the effects of climate change on forest fires, compared to less than a thousand in the 1960s.
These figures must, however, be taken with caution because the models used gave very variable estimates. According to some, more than a quarter of deaths linked to fires in recent years are attributable to global warming, while others put the proportion down to 5%.
But the models all show an upward trend. They show the same consistency when taking the major regions of the world in isolation.
“The influence of climate change on fire mortality is greatest in South America, southern Australia and Europe“, note the authors of the study, explaining the trend by a general drop in humidity in these regions.
On the other hand, “in other regions, such as South Asia, fire-related mortality has declined amid rising humidity“, they note.