LONDON/PARIS Europe stares fearfully across the Atlantic.
The reason for the fear is that the people of the United States will soon vote for a president.
In many assessments, the elections are considered to be revolutionary or the most significant since the Second World War.
– If Donald Trump is re-elected, it means that something very fundamental has changed in the United States, says the researcher interviewed by Peter Trubowitz.
It can bring big changes to the relations between Europe and the United States.
– It is certainly the case that Donald Trump’s victory would drive Europe and the United States further apart. There will be simmering and simmering, but not in such a way that the United States completely withdraws from Europe, Professor Trubowitz thinks.
He is not at all sure that Europe fully understands what can be expected.
Peter Trubowitz is a professor of international politics at the prestigious London School of Economics.
According to a professor with a US background, the change in the United States is about isolation, nationalism and xenophobia.
However, the European heads of state state as if with one voice that whichever one is chosen in the United States, we will get along. This speech is diplomacy.
It is clear that in terms of EU-Europe and NATO-Europe, the democrats Terrible Harris would be a better option. Cooperation across the Atlantic would be easier, more predictable and more stable.
Republican Donald Trump, who is embracing re-election, left an indelible memory mark on Europe during his previous reign.
Trump fraternized Russia Vladimir Putin and Hungary Viktor Orbán with autocrats like
The period of power ended with an election defeat, its denial and a direct coup attempt in the epiphany of 2021.
Mixing blood and enemies of the people
In the ongoing election campaign, Donald Trump’s speeches have become more and more confusing.
Immigration is Trump’s main election theme, and when he talks about it, he names immigrants as a threat. When describing a threat, he uses the same ones metaphors for mixing blood as the Nazis used in their speeches in Germany in the 1930s.
He equates migrants to animals. The dehumanization of a group of people strongly reminds me of the hatred that preceded the mass extermination of the Nazis. From the same buffet of the history of ideas is the idea of the opposite side or the free media as the enemy of the people.
The radicalization of Donald Trump’s speeches is a very worrying development for the West. NATO countries and Western democracies are used to thinking that they share the same values.
If Trump is elected president of the United States, based on his previous term in office and recent campaign speeches, can we say that anymore?
Does Europe and the United States then share the same values? Just as a question, this is revolutionary.
– Europe is rightfully asking how it is possible that a person like Donald Trump can possibly be elected president again, says Trubowitz.
He estimates that as president Trump would continue on his chosen line. He cares little about international organizations and rule-basedness.
– The rest of the world has to consider whether the United States commits to the rule of law and human rights.
Peter Trubowitz reminds that there are those who slip away from these principles in Europe as well. If Trump wins, it will be largely thanks to the theme of immigration. This is guaranteed to inspire Europe’s populist leaders as well.
– They will duplicate Donald Trump’s immigration theme for their own use if it turns out to be a winning card.
The electoral victories of European populist and far-right parties have already been built precisely on opposition to migration and immigration.
It is characteristic of this time that ideas focused on extreme right-wing ideologies, xenophobic themes, extreme conservatism and conspiracy theories are now coming forcefully into the European debate precisely from the United States.
However, the origin of these ideas stems specifically from Europe decades and centuries ago. They have been refined in the United States and received forms suitable for the alternative realities of this time.
Peace to Ukraine in a day?
Europe is concerned about the erosion of transatlantic common values. But with even greater fear, it will watch whether the US military presence in Europe changes and how the US feels about supporting Ukraine.
Trump has been reported to have come close to pulling the United States out of NATO in his previous term. In the spirit of this election campaign, he has announced that he will end Russia’s attack on Ukraine within a day.
Peter Trubowitz leaves Donald Trump’s threat of a deal in 24 hours for his own worth. But it is clear, according to him, that the pressure in the United States regarding Ukraine is enormous.
– Whoever is elected, the need to end the war is great.
Director of the French Foreign Policy Institute (IFRI). Thomas Gomart estimates that the US attitude towards Ukraine may change to a large extent if Trump is elected.
– He has made it clear that he can make a deal directly with Vladimir Putin and stop supporting Ukraine, Gomart tells .
For Europe, the US presidential change comes at a diabolical time. There is a clear tiredness in the air to support Ukraine, winter is coming and the war is getting longer.
– There has been a lot of talk about the fact that a plan has been created for NATO’s change in case Donald Trump is elected. Maybe so, says Gomart.
He considers the excessive dependence of European countries’ defense and security policy on the United States to be a problem.
Gomart announces to Europe a political desire to coordinate its own defense industry when it competes with the American industry.
– The security guarantees given by the United States almost automatically include the acquisition of American defense equipment.
Thomas Gomart sourly points out that certain European NATO countries have also wanted bilateral relations in order to obtain defense equipment and security from the United States.
– Among other things, Finland and Sweden joined NATO and signed bilateral agreements with the United States at the same time, IFRI director Gomart points out.