The report looks at actual emissions and what the world’s various countries have promised to do in the future until 2030 and 2035. If we continue, the global temperature increase is now expected to reach 3.1 degrees during the century. If all countries do what they promised, the increase ends up at 2.8 degrees, and if poor countries receive financial means for costly investments, the increase will be 2.6 degrees.
If countries that promised zero emissions in the future succeed, the increase will land at 1.9 degrees.
In three out of four scenarios, you are thus far from the Paris Agreement’s goal of keeping global warming below 2 degrees, preferably 1.5 degrees.
– We would need the global emission levels to fall below the most stringent of the current climate goals for 2030, otherwise we have no chance of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees and it will also be very difficult to reach below two degrees, says Olhoff.
Reductions possible
But UNEP states that it is still possible to make drastic reductions in emissions to stay around the 1.5 degree target, if all countries – above all the G20 countries – increase the pace. Two of the most effective measures are to accelerate the expansion of solar and wind power, which could remove just over a quarter of the reductions needed by 2030.
Another fifth of the gap can be closed via reduced deforestation and new plantings. UNEP also points out energy efficiency improvements, electrification and changing fuels in buildings, the transport sector and industry.
– It shows that we have many opportunities to actually reduce emissions and accelerate the reduction of emissions here and now, says Olhoff.
It can feel hopeless to follow the emissions, which continue to increase year after year, she admits.
– I think we all feel that. But on the other hand, I think we are seeing progress. They are just so slow.
– This is something that takes time, but the problem is of course that we are running out of time.