Far from prying eyes. On Wednesday October 16, Laurent Wauquiez and Véronique Louwagie met at Matignon. The Right Republican deputies (DR) meet Jérôme Fournel, Michel Barnier’s chief of staff, and some senior officials from Bercy. The pair comes to submit to the executive a series of savings proposals in order to reduce the increase in taxes planned in the 2025 draft budget. The Savoyard’s right arm takes note of their arguments, without expanding further. Nor had he formulated a precise response to the suggestions of MP DR Jean-Didier Berger during an exchange at the Ministry of Relations with Parliament.
The same day, the parliamentary theater opens with the examination of the text in the Finance Committee. This folklore fools no one. The budget, promised to be adopted by 49.3 for lack of a majority in the Assembly, is being written behind the scenes. In a secret struggle for influence between Michel Barnier and his “common base” allies. A war of constraints, too. Each camp must swallow ideological snakes in view of the deterioration of public accounts. “It’s a technical budget, not a political one,” notes a DR advisor. But everyone is trying at the same time to obtain a few victories to display as trophies.
Perhaps this budget was born in August. Michel Barnier is not yet at Matignon. His name barely circulates in the list of suitors considered by the head of state. The elected official, however, has some ideas about the color of the finance bill. “There is an issue of tax justice,” he told a relative at the time. “The rich have become richer with Emmanuel Macron.” Sacrilege! This is the tax taboo lifted by Nicolas Sarkozy’s former minister. Too bad for LR, which has made any tax increase a “red line” in its legislative pact. To hell with the central bloc, hostile to any deconstruction of the Macronist heritage. This legacy has almost sentimental value among EPR deputies. Once appointed, Michel Barnier goes for it. Convinced that his coalition is forced to follow his directions. “I wasn’t a candidate for anything,” he likes to remind us to better underline his freedom.
“Don’t let yourself be led away by Gérald Darmanin”
History does not prove him wrong. The central bloc and the right have resigned themselves to its two major tax measures: a temporary surtax on high incomes and an increase in corporate tax. The head of the Ensemble pour la République (EPR) deputies Gabriel Attal did not veto it and did not want his group to bring forward an amendment to remove the increase in corporate tax. The former Prime Minister assured his troops that it was difficult to find an alternative system to this measure, a source of eight billion euros in savings.
An MP recently advised him not to get on this hobby horse: “It would be an error in economic credibility. Don’t let yourself be led along by Gérald Darmanin.” The former tenant of Beauvau, who does not want to hear about the slightest tax increase, arouses the incomprehension of many EPR elected officials. Former Minister of Industry Roland Lescure finally noted how much this measure was understood by business leaders, despite their reservations.
The right has also slowed down. The red tax line has been repainted orange. Laurent Wauquiez attributes responsibility for this shift to the Macronists, in the midst of a slide in public finances. “We take into account the constraint, confides the boss of the DR deputies. We need accommodations in relation to the moral purity of a right-wing policy.”
Note from the right to Matignon
But we have to grab some victories. Behind the scenes, the fight continues. LR contests the freezing of retirement pensions for six months, from January 1 to July 1, 2025. Laurent Wauquiez tasked Orne MP Véronique Louwagie with finding an alternative to this repulsive measure to the right, but a pledge of four billion euros in savings. In a note sent to Matignon, the right advocates compensation for savings on immigration (removal of the “residence permit for care”, reform of State Medical Aid) as well as in administration, notably with the freezing one-year recruitment in the state administration outside government ministries. Laurent Wauquiez is still waiting for his response.
The former regional boss spoke this weekend with Michel Barnier. He privately regrets the influence of the Bercy technostructure on the Matignon hotel, hardly receptive to the right’s economic ideas. The Minister of Public Accounts, Laurent Saint-Martin, has just agreed to oust “small pensions” from the system. Insufficient for the right. At the risk of weakening the coalition? A DR deputy reassured Michel Barnier: “The balance of power is on your side. They will not vote for censorship.”
The battle of employer charges
The central bloc is also looking for political gains. During a group meeting, Gérald Darmanin and Aurore Bergé advocated on Tuesday October 22 the identification of “war goals” in this budgetary battle. This quest takes on an existential dimension. If I don’t know my grievances, do I know who I am? “We must assume our pro-business identity or risk disappearing,” judges an EPR executive. So, the Macronists are targeting in unison the reduction in employer contributions, the flagship measure of the Social Security budget. “In the event of a loss of our requirements, we take the risk of illegibility. We cannot negotiate on everything, notes Roland Lescure. Reducing burdens is an existential battle for us, because we know its effectiveness on the ‘job.”
They want to replace it with unemployment insurance reform, but the executive is holding back. An EPR deputy opened up privately to Laurent Saint-Martin, already questioned on Tuesday in a group meeting: let him tell them, among the savings they have in their boxes, those which they have not endorsed . MPs are ready to propose them to obtain the abandonment of the increase in charges.
This struggle for influence illustrates the crisis experienced by the common base. Two entities living side by side, when they are not face to face. Elected DRs and Macronists have distinct budgetary requests and do not hunt in packs, despite their ideological twinship. The public coffers are empty, the executive will not be able to satisfy everyone. Will new tensions arise from Michel Barnier’s arbitrations?
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