The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned, this Wednesday, October 23, of a risk of a large budgetary slippage in France without consolidation efforts, at a time when the national assembly is examining the finance bill for 2025 providing for “60 billion euros” of budgetary effort.
After a slide to 6% of GDP for 2024, the public deficit could fall slightly to 5.9% next year, before increasing to 5.8% in 2026 and stagnating at 5.9% in 2027, 2028 and 2029 , according to a budget report from the Washington institution published Wednesday. Without additional efforts, public debt could also climb a little more over the years and peak at 124.1% of GDP in 2029, estimates the IMF which sees it at 112.3% at the end of this year.
France saw its public deficit far exceed its forecasts for 2024, initially forecast at 4.4% of GDP but which should ultimately peak above 6%. According to the IMF report, specifically citing the case of France, “in advanced economies where the tax burden is already high, adjustments should rely more on a redefinition of spending priorities (for example, through a general expenditure review) as part of an overall reduction in public spending.
The IMF expects “more clarity” from the government
However, the estimates on the deficit and the debt do not take into account the 60 billion euros that the government wants to release. “The government has presented ideas, proposals that go in the right direction, but we are waiting for more clarity on the measures that will actually be implemented in France,” said Vitor Gaspar, director of the budgetary affairs department at the Washington institution, during a press conference.