The start of the examination of the 2025 budget is given this Monday evening at the National Assembly. A text that does not suit the government coalition itself, which could trap Prime Minister Michel Barnier.
The examination of the “revenue” part of the 2025 budget begins this Monday at 9:30 p.m. in a plenary session at the National Assembly. MPs have 40 days to agree on this part of the finance bill (PLF) supposed to make 60 billion euros in savings to reduce the public deficit to 5% next year. The Barnier government will have to come up against a chamber more divided than ever, and heated debates like in the Finance Committee last week. In these conditions, it is impossible to say whether this sequence of more than a month devoted to the PLF will come to an end.
If there is one political force that has an interest in not prolonging the debates, it is the New Popular Front (NFP). Indeed, the alliance of the left – winner in the last early legislative elections – must come together and try to put its paw on this 2025 budget. “It’s playable”, estimated Eric Coquerel, NFP deputy for Seine-Saint-Denis this Sunday on BFMTV.
Conversely, if the discussions drag on, and exceed the set deadline of 40 days, Prime Minister Michel Barnier could change gear and decide to activate another lever of the Constitution, namely article 47. This The latter allows the government to refer the matter to the Senate to “rule within fifteen days (…) if the National Assembly has not decided on first reading within forty days”. A catastrophe for the left, and a definite advantage for the government coalition, the Senate being majority on the right.
Michel Barnier will “call for mobilization” in his ranks
In the ranks of the presidential majority (Ensemble, La Droite Republicane, MoDem, Horizons), the upcoming parliamentary sequence does not appear to be the simplest, far from it. First, because Michel Barnier can only rely on a very small relative majority, of barely more than 200 deputies, far from the absolute majority set at 289 deputies. Then, because the government’s budget does not seem to have unanimous support, even within its own ranks.
Of the 3,496 amendments tabled by the eleven parliamentary groups, 728 come from the Republican Right and 516 come from Ensemble pour la République (the Macron camp). In other words, the government alliance which can also be defined by the term “common base” obviously has many adjustments to make, at least to propose on a budget that it is supposed to support.
So, what solution for Michel Barnier? First of all, close ranks and mobilize your camp on the benches of the National Assembly. According to an advisor to the tenant of Matignon for Politicothe latter will “call for mobilization” the deputies of the “common base” on the 2025 budget by insisting on the “sense of collective and responsibility (…) it is important that the deputies are at his side”, can also be read. The instructions are clear: we must mobilize in numbers during the first examination sessions of the PLF. In fact, Michel Barnier no longer really has a choice if he wishes to mobilize the faithful Macronists, some of whom do not really adhere to his speech. “Many do not feel respected and not considered by the Prime Minister, and think that there is no point in mobilizing for a Prime Minister who does not care about them,” explains a collaborator of the group to Politico.
The government coalition in disarray
This Monday noon, Michel Barnier and Gabriel Attal must have lunch together. This evening, before the start of the budget review, the head of government will also be present at the cocktail organized at the Ministry of Relations with Parliament. The moment for him to send a clear message, and to call for mobilization or risk having the rug pulled from under him by the NFP and/or the RN. As a reminder, once the New Popular Front and the National Rally decide to vote together, there will be no hope for the presidential coalition to compete. All the more so if the Macronists and the Republican Right do not make a sufficient presence in the hemicycle, as happened last Monday and Tuesday with the rejection of two texts after the vote of the left and the extreme right and sparse seats in the ranks of the common base.
This Sunday, the RN deputy for the Somme Jean-Philippe Tanguy – interviewed on BFMTV – did not wish to “pronounce on behalf of his group” on the subject of a possible motion of censure against the government in the event of recourse to article 49.3 by Michel Barnier to have the 2025 budget adopted. “We will see. It will be a decision by Marine Le Pen with Jordan Bardella obviously”, indicates the elected official. The National Rally therefore does not completely rule out voting for a motion of censure to try to overthrow the government in place.
An extremely significant number of amendments tabled, notable absenteeism on the benches of the National Assembly last week… Is there unease in the ranks of the presidential coalition? Do the different groups in this coalition really feel responsible for this lack of mobilization? Not really, according to the words of one of the four groups slipped to Politico: “you have to learn to lose”. Understand that if a vote is lost in advance, it is not necessary to make substantial efforts to encourage parliamentarians to vote.