Lebanon faces a double danger. The displacement of its population, the thousands of dead and wounded and the enormous destruction caused by the war with Israel, but also the strong pressures exerted by the conflict on its political-confessional fabric… Will the country resist this final test?
From our correspondent in Beirut,
One of the most serious manifestations of the war between the Lebanon And Israel is the forced displacement of more than a million Shiites from the south of the country, the southern suburbs of Beirut and the eastern Bekaa plain, due to devastating bombings by the Israeli army.
The UN High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) estimated, on October 15, that “ a quarter of Lebanese territory was now under evacuation orders from the Israeli army “. For his part, the spokesperson for the United Nations Interim Force deployed in Lebanon (UNIFIL), Andrea Tenenti, declared on October 18 that “ the devastation and destruction of many villages along the Blue Line, and even beyond, was shocking “.
This suggests that the return of displaced populations is ruled out in the medium term, even if the fighting stopped soon, which does not seem to be the case either.
However, if some 200,000 displaced people were settled in a thousand reception centers managed by the Lebanese government, the others found refuge in regions of Lebanon with a Sunni, Christian and Druze majority, renting apartments at their own expense, or are housed with the assistance of local authorities, associations, political parties or religious organizations.
Melhem Khalaf, independent member of the Lebanese Parliament, welcomes “ a surge of individual and collective solidarity “. “ Houses often made available free of charge to complete strangers, hotels and schools transformed into reception centers, collective kitchens created to offer hot meals to all, human presence for psychological and sometimes even financial support for the displaced. So many unexpected, even unhoped for, acts within a society which massively lost its savings with the collapse of the banking system just four years ago. », observes the parliamentarian interviewed by RFI.
Political and social pressures on Hezbollah
But the other side of the coin began to appear after the increase in Israeli air raids against buildings housing displaced people in Sunni, Christian and Druze regions, under the pretext of the presence of Hezbollah members. The deadliest struck, on October 14, the Christian locality of Aïtou (Zghorta, North Lebanon), leaving 24 dead, including twelve women and two children.
Three days earlier, four displaced people were killed in a raid on the predominantly Sunni town of Barja, 30 kilometers south of Beirut.
“ Through roving raids against displaced people in all regions of Lebanon, Israel wants to increase political and social pressure on Hezbollah and create dissension between the Shiites and other communities in the country. », Says a former minister who requested anonymity.
The settlement of Shiite populations in different regions of the country is accompanied by rumors, spread in the media and social networks by public figures or anonymous sources, which fuels the feeling of insecurity and increases the distrust of local populations. towards the displaced.
Thus, after a raid which, on October 12, left 16 dead in the Shiite locality of Maaysra, in the heart of Christian Mount Lebanon, May Chidiac, a journalist known for her fierce hostility to Hezbollah, accused the Shiite party of having stored rockets in this village, suggesting that this weaponry was intended to be used inside Lebanon and not against Israel. These accusations angered the local mayor, Zouhair Berro, who accused him of providing a pretext for the Israelis to carry out raids against displaced families.
After the deadly raid on Aïtou, Michel Moawad, Maronite deputy from Zghorta, declared that “ it was not the locality that was targeted but a member of Hezbollah who was with his family in the targeted building “.
Former minister and deputy Sleiman Frangié, presidential candidate supported by Hezbollah and its allies, and Maronite leader of North Lebanon, for his part estimated that “what happened in Aïtou also took place in Deir Billa (Batroun), in Maaysra (Kesrouan) and in other localities, with the aim of creating a negative atmosphere and internal conflicts, which is very dangerous, especially for Christians “.
Political exploitation of the weakening of Hezbollah
This tense and unhealthy atmosphere pushed the spokesperson of the HezbollahMohammed Afif, to warn those who “ talk about political capitalization » of Israel’s war against the Shiite party. “ Don’t rush, don’t burn your fingers, otherwise it means you haven’t understood the lessons of the past “, he told those who are banking on the defeat of his movement, during a press conference on October 11. He blasted “some Lebanese politicians and members of the local media who made disgusting remarks “.
“ Some political parties and figures, emboldened by the comments of Benyamin Netanyahu on his desire to “change reality” in the Middle East, are eager to see these changes happen in Lebanon », Supports the former minister interviewed by RFI.
“ The weakening of Hezbollah today, due to conflict with Israel, is seen by some as a rebalancing of forces on the political spectrum in Lebanon.considers for his part the independent deputy Melhem Khalaf. Those who predict catastrophic scenarios of internal conflict, or even civil war, are betting that the Lebanese will allow themselves to be trapped once again by the spiral of violence. This will not be the case. »
To stop this dynamic, the parliamentarian is banking on “all people of good will [qui] are working to put out all the fires that risk heating up people’s minds “. “However, we do not underestimate the efforts made by Lebanon’s enemies to try to undermine its social fabric. “, he warns, however.
These fears are shared by MP Gebran Bassil, president of the Free Patriotic Movement (CPL, founded by Michel Aoun), who leads the second largest Christian parliamentary bloc.
“ This is a serious time. The Israeli project is to provoke internal discord in Lebanon, and only our unity can protect us from it. We must avoid civil war at all costs “, he declared during an interviewgranted on October 18, to the French-speaking daily The Orient-The Day.
“Many parties seek to exploit internal divisionsadds this former ally of Hezbollah. [Benyamin] Netanyahu seeks to achieve this goal. His main message to the Lebanese is to separate Lebanon from Hezbollah. I am against what Hezbollah did, against the opening of the support front [à Gaza] October 8, 2023, but I can’t be with Israel. There is no way I can play Netanyahu’s game. Moreover, for the Israelis, it is not only a question of separating Lebanon from Hezbollah, but of separating it from the Shiite community and pitting the Lebanese against each other. […] Today, I cannot accept that a community which participated in the founding of Lebanon should be crushed. It would no longer be Lebanon », he concludes.
Call from religious leaders for national unity
Samir Geagea, leader of the Lebanese Forces (FL), for his part, refuses to bet on an Israeli victory, despite his fierce opposition to Hezbollah. This did not prevent him from bringing together, on October 12, several opposition figures and personalities known for their hostility to Hezbollah to demand “a ceasefire ”, “the election as quickly as possible of a President of the Republic » and the implementation of UN resolutions 1701 and 1559, which calls for the “disarmament of militias », in this case Hezbollah.
“ Mr. Geagea demands, quite simply, the surrender of Hezbollah in the midst of the Israeli offensive, and while the battle rages. This is an insane request », Comments the ex-minister.
The meeting organized by the leader of the FL was shunned by the main figures opposed to Hezbollah, as well as the Druze leader, Walid Jumblatt. Aware of the seriousness of the situation, the latter has muted his criticism of the Shiite party and is holding a unifying speech, which he imposes against all odds on the members of his community. Samir Geagea’s meeting was also boycotted by the main Sunni leaders, who fear being at odds with their community, resolutely opposed to Israel and favorable to the Palestinian cause.
Even if the speech hostile to Hezbollah and the Shiites has not yet established itself in the public sphere, the situation was considered serious enough by the patriarch of the Maronite Church, Béchara Raï, to convene a spiritual summit on October 16 . Call responded to by the leaders of all religious communities, including the vice-president of the High Shiite Council, Ali el-Khatib.
In a joint statement, religious leaders appealed to “national unity and solidarity to defend the country » and emphasized the need to strengthen the institutions of the Lebanese state.
Will the Lebanese socio-community fabric resist this umpteenth war? “ We have every reason to hope so. But we must recognize that the pressures are strong, and a risk always exists. Faced with this risk, what we are sorely lacking is the presence of a strong State which takes charge of managing the crisis. », concludes Melhem Khalaf.