To establish a lasting foothold in the EU or to reestablish ties with Moscow? Moldova, long torn, is organizing a double vote this Sunday, October 20: the choice of its future president, with the outgoing pro-Western leader Maia Sandu as the favorite, but also a referendum for or against the principle of future membership in the European Union. Very important issues for this former Soviet republic, neighboring Ukraine at war.
However, the country is proving to be a particularly fertile playing field for Russia, which has invested colossal sums to influence the course of this double election. The Moldovan authorities estimate that the Kremlin has spent nearly 100 million dollars (92 million euros) since the start of 2024 for various corruption or disinformation operations on social networks.
A massive vote-buying scheme has been exposed in recent weeks, involving tens of thousands of Moldovans paid to slip anti-Sandu and anti-EU ballots into the ballot box. Due to its scale and the complexity of the mechanism, it is an “unprecedented phenomenon”, police chief Viorel Cernauteanu told AFP. Before we exchanged envelopes of notes, now we are talking about bank transfers of millions of dollars “intended to corrupt 150,000 people, even 300,000 including their families”, he detailed, or around a quarter of the voters who should travel to vote in this country of 2.6 million inhabitants.
An observation corroborated by a study by the New Strategy Center, based in Romania. This affirms that between false information and a massive system of vote buying, “Russian interference has reached an unprecedented level”. Investigators also discovered the existence of “internships” in Russia and the Balkans to train young recruits in destabilization tactics. Faced with “sabotage attempts”, Washington pledged this week to “support” the country, just as the EU which adopted new sanctions against pro-Russian activists.
“A complex disinformation campaign”
At the heart of this system: Ilan Shor, a Moldovan oligarch in exile in Moscow. Convicted of fraud last year for stealing nearly a billion dollars from three banks in the country, he is the key man in organizing the destabilization maneuvers from Russia. On the social network Telegram, he regularly castigates the Moldovan “police state”, which has become an “obedient puppet” of the West. His political party – which also bears his own name – was banned in 2023. Surely one of the reasons why Ilan Shor did not endorse any other candidate for this presidential election.
Russia has “changed strategy by using a host of candidates, some of whom say they are pro-European, to conduct a complex disinformation campaign” essentially targeting the referendum, the participation rate of which will be scrutinized, notes the New Strategy Center. With 10% voting intentions in the latest polls, the candidate best placed behind outgoing president Maia Sandu – credited with 36% – turns out to be Alexandr Stoianoglo, a 57-year-old former prosecutor supported by the socialists. pro-Russian.
To hear the latter, the population would be “desperate” in the face of government policy, commented to AFP the expert from the WatchDog think tank, Andrei Curararu. The pro-Russian camp “feeds the idea that Moldovans are ready to do anything to express their discontent”, very real for some against a backdrop of poverty and record inflation. Against the backdrop of the great dependence on gas imports from Russia, which has largely closed the floodgates since the start of the war in Ukraine.
The pro-Russian parties thus launched a campaign to boycott the vote. And if the threshold of 33% of those registered necessary to validate the results is not reached, Moldova’s European path would be weakened. With the “final battle being the legislative elections of 2025”, very uncertain at this stage, comments Valeriu Pasha, WatchDog analyst. Thus, for pro-European leader Maia Sandu, the Russian threat would still be far from being ruled out, even in the event of victory this Sunday.