In mid-August, Ukraine said it had taken control of 92 towns in a 1,250 square kilometer area in the Kursk region. They had then pushed three miles into Russian territory.
But now, just over two months later, the progress of the Ukrainians has stopped. The American think tank ISW determined this week that the Russians have probably retaken about 46 percent of the ground they lost.
A Russian commander stated on Tuesday in an interview with Russian propagandist Vladimir Solovyov that within a month Ukraine may leave Russia, according to state Russian Paw.
– They will be forced to flee or be surrounded, he says.
The analyst: Can lose Kursk – but not now
Emil Kastehelmi, open source intelligence analyst at the Finnish Black Bird Group, says that a Russian counterattack was expected. The explanation for the Russian successes is primarily about the Russians’ numerical superiority, he believes.
– It is about numbers but also about the fact that the Ukrainians did not manage to dig in sufficiently. I have not seen any major fortification projects, says Emil Kastehelmi and emphasizes that the open terrain in the area also negatively affects the defense capabilities of the Ukrainians there.
However, he does not believe in a quick Ukrainian withdrawal across the border.
– I would be surprised if the Russians expel all Ukrainians from Kursk in a month. Although the Russians managed to beat them back, the Ukrainians managed to limit the breakthroughs relatively quickly.
– It is likely that the Ukrainians will gradually lose ground, but how quickly is difficult to determine. It is possible that by the end of the year they may have lost a large portion of the land they took.
Data on North Koreans
One of Ukraine’s stated goals in the attack on the Kursk region was to force the Russians to scale back the offensive on the Eastern Front to meet the new threat in their own country.
Ukraine claimed that 50,000 Russian soldiers had been moved there. But recently, a source told Ukrainian Liga.net that the Russians may soon receive additional reinforcements – from North Korea.
According to the source, a 3,000-strong force consisting of North Korean soldiers has been formed in Russia. The information comes in the light of a series of statements from both Ukraine and South Korea regarding the increased military cooperation between North Korea and Russia recently.