Ukraine’s need to end the war as soon as possible and well for Ukraine also dominates the discussion at the NATO Defense Ministers’ meeting.
The ministers will meet in Brussels on Thursday and Friday. Representing Finland Antti Häkkänen (co.)
Underneath the meeting, the air has been thick with various hopes, rumors and uncertainties. Since the situation on the Ukrainian front is difficult, NATO should support Ukraine with the right messages. In addition to communication, NATO countries are expected to promise more concrete support.
Ukraine will present its so-called victory plan today, Thursday, in Europe.
The defense minister of Ukraine will visit the NATO headquarters and the president will visit the EU leaders’ table. President Zelenskyi may also appear at the NATO leaders’ meeting.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi has already told his plan to, for example, US President Joe Biden and his country’s parliament.
How do you get to a profit from a profit plan?
According to publicly available information, the Victory plan includes, for example, waiving restrictions on the use of long-range weapons, financial support and an invitation to NATO membership.
Still, various diplomatic sources in Brussels say they can’t describe how exactly it would help Ukraine win the war.
– We discuss it behind closed doors, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte quoth
Although NATO has promised Ukraine that it will become a NATO member, the country has not yet received an actual invitation to become a member. Ukraine hopes to invite as soon as possible.
If the country were promised an invitation, Ukraine could count on NATO to guarantee the country’s security in time. According to Ukrainian thinking, this would also help Ukraine win the war, or at least get a good outcome.
The invitation has not previously been discussed at a NATO meeting. Most likely, there will be no invitation at least from this meeting.
– We are not at the point where an invitation could be sent in the near future, the US ambassador to NATO Julianne Smith quoth.
After the invitation, there would still be membership negotiations ahead.
Greetings from the battlefield
In recent months, representatives of Ukraine have been involved in all NATO meetings, and Zelenskyi has met with almost all heads of state in Western countries in recent weeks.
At the same time, Ukraine is not doing very well on the front, but neither is Russia. Ukraine is losing its territories little by little. Russia, on the other hand, experiences big losses when it loses its equipment and soldiers. At the meeting, the NATO ministers will get first-hand information about the situation of the fighting in Ukraine.
Another winter is ahead, when ordinary Ukrainians will suffer from the war even more than usual.
The US presidential election also creates a rush. They increase uncertainty about how the US will continue to support Ukraine. The European NATO countries, on the other hand, would probably not succeed in filling the gap left by the United States if the country stopped military support.
As the war drags on, support becomes more difficult
In recent weeks, there has also been talk of Europe being tired of war. The longer the war in Ukraine continues, the more difficult it will be to support.
In the warehouses, there is no war material to be handed over, which would be given to Ukraine, various diplomatic sources estimate. And the more Ukraine is supported, the more it costs overall, and this money is out of use at home.
Many leaders of a large European country also have domestic political concerns in mind. For example, the politics of France and Germany have been unstable, and the leaders have to play tricks to stay in power.
On the other hand, part of the previously promised support is just being implemented. For example, France has planned to hand over fighters, and it is likely that Ukraine will receive the first Mirage fighters in the spring. In recent months, the country has received the first F16 fighter jets, the handover of which has been talked about practically throughout the war of aggression.
The NATO countries have also promised to continue military support for Ukraine at the same pace as until now.
In recent weeks, there has been speculation, for example, about Ukraine joining NATO so that not all of its territories would be under the control of the Ukrainian government. This possibility was floated, for example, by the former Secretary General of NATO Jens Stoltenberg. NATO leaders are careful not to publicly touch on the subject, because if at this stage it were recognized that it is difficult for Ukraine to get back its territories conquered by Russia, it could lead to a defeatist mentality, according to diplomatic sources.
The meeting starting today is also Mark Rutte’s first ministerial meeting. One of his tasks in the coming weeks is to convince the next US president that Ukraine is worth supporting, as well as European security.