Three weeks before the November 5 vote, the polls are still close, but several surveys reveal Kamala Harris’ difficulties. According to this poll revealed by the NBC television channel, the Democratic candidate is neck and neck with her Republican opponent, former President Donald Trump with support from 48% of registered voters. That’s a drop of five points over one month.
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The momentum garnered by the outgoing Democratic vice-president, Kamala Harris, during the summer seems to be running out of steam. “ It’s true that when she became a candidate, when she introduced her running mate, when there was the Democratic Convention, she benefited from a slight but real effect. So, she had gone slightly back in front Donald Trumpwhile Joe Biden was very slightly behind him. There had been a movement, but it was not massive either. », notes Mathieu Gallard, director of studies at the Ipsos polling institute, at the microphone of Daniel Vallot of international service.
“ There, what we see is that things tend to tighten up. Although, when you look at the different polls, Kamala Haris is still leading nationally. But leading by 1,2, or 3 points. Which is not necessarily enough for her to be elected president of the UNITED STATES », he continues.
On Sunday, the 59-year-old vice-president chose North Carolina, in the southeast of the country. This state, won for the last time in 2008 by a Democrat, has just been devastated by theHurricane Helene. At a meeting in Greenville, she attacked her rival, accusing him of a lack of transparency about her state of health and of refusing to have a second debate with her.
Seduce the black electorate
Kamala Harris also tried to seduce the black electorate this Monday, October 14 in Erie, Pennsylvania, while issuing a more general warning against the increasingly authoritarian rhetoric of Donald Trump, also campaigning in the state key to Pennsylvania. She broadcast extracts from an intervention by Donald Trump, who further raised his anti-migrant rhetoric, accusing the Biden/Harris government on Sunday of having “ imported an army of illegal immigrants » came « dungeons around the world » during an event in Arizona.
He also stated that “ the National Guard » or even “ military » should be called against “ the enemy from within » in the United States, “crazy people, far left weirdos “. “ This is one of the reasons why I think so strongly that a second Trump term would be a huge risk for America, it would be very dangerous “, Kamala Harris said Monday. At the same time, his Republican rival quickly answered a question from a voter in the town of Oaks about his measures to counter inflation, before focusing on his favorite theme, border security.
The former California prosecutor thus rolled out during her meeting a series of proposals presented earlier by her team and supposed to directly benefit African-American men. This program aims to help them launch their small business or trade, in particular thanks to advantageous loans, but also contains training and apprenticeship aid, as well as a system of favored access to professions in the education.
Mobilize your base
Last Thursday, former President Barack Obama scolded his black “brothers”, according to him, who were reluctant to elect a woman for the first time in American history. Donald Trump rejoiced Monday in Pennsylvania about polls which “ broke the ceiling » thanks to the black and Hispanic electorate. “ I love it. »
Donald Trump manages to score points by flattering his electoral base, analyzes Mathieu Gallard, director of studies at the Ipsos polling institute. “ It would seem that Donald Trump is succeeding, thanks to a campaign which is always on extremely identity-related themes, particularly linked to his visceral opposition to immigration, to very strongly mobilize the Republican electoral base. »
The enthusiasm that was created among the Democrats, at least in part of the Democratic electorate following the nomination of Kamala Harris, is tending to subside. Kamala Harris has difficulty maintaining this enthusiasm over the distance. An extremely important issue.” HASIn the United States, to win a presidential election, what matters is not so much ultimately convincing undecided voters. There are simply very few of them. But what we need to do is mobilize our camp, and that’s what it’s going to be about. Which of the two candidates will best succeed in mobilizing their electoral base? That’s what’s going to count. »
In any case, the outcome of the vote is more uncertain than ever, the two adversaries being neck and neck with the gap seeming to be narrowing further.
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