There will likely be a bloody battle for Pokrovsk, but the road leading to the city is blocked for now, says an expert.
In a few months it will already be three years since Russia launched a large-scale attack on Ukraine.
This fall, Russia has managed to advance in several directions, for example on the outskirts of the city of Pokrovski in Donetsk.
– There, at most, more than 15–16 kilometers have been advanced directly and a significant number of villages have been captured, says an expert on the war in Ukraine Emil Kastehelmi. He belongs to the group that follows the war in Ukraine from open sources.
The Russians have also conquered large areas in the direction of Vuhledar in Donetsk.
– In the direction of Bahmut, the Russians have also succeeded in nullifying the results of Ukraine’s summer 2023 counterattack. And we should not forget the Luhansk-Kharkov border area, where Ukraine has also been pushed in many directions.
The most important changes on the front have taken place in Kursk
Since September, Russia has succeeded in recapturing the territories conquered by Ukraine in Kursk, Russia, with counterattacks.
– The Ukrainians have lost quite a significant part of the territory. In the latest attacks, the Russians have managed to push the so-called Kursk bulge inwards from the western side.
One of the much-discussed issues of fate has been the battle for Pokrovski’s control. According to Kastehelmi, it has been the focus of the Russians for a long time.
The Ukrainians are actively fortifying the area, but the border of the city of Pokrovsky is only about seven kilometers from the front line.
– When the Russians have captured some stations, the Ukrainians have dug more of them. There’s a pretty tight defense there. The road to the city of Pokrovski has been pretty much blocked for several weeks now.
The Russians have had to pay for their advances with the blood of their soldiers.
However, Kastehelmi does not sign the information circulating in the media that September would have been the “bloodiest” for the Russians in a long time.
– I don’t think there is enough data to support the claim. Of course, it is possible that the Russians would have switched to using tactics on a large scale, in which for some reason record numbers of infantry are consumed. But it must be noted that Russia already has extremely bloody months behind it, for example in Avdijivka and Bahmut, says Kastehelmi.
There are no signs of North Korean soldiers on the front
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi spoke over the weekend about the fact that North Korean soldiers would now also be fighting on the Russian side at the front.
According to Kastehelmi, there may be North Koreans in some kind of positions. However, there have been no signs that Russia would use military units made up of North Koreans who would actively participate in warfare.
Ukraine, on the other hand, has recently been reported to be suffering from a crew shortage. According to Kastehelmi, the situation has slightly improved during the late summer and autumn. It has also been helped by the law on business launch.
The problem is still the quality of the soldiers rather than the quantity. Proper military training would require a longer time than is possible for Ukraine.
– Ukraine is able to form mostly infantry-oriented brigades. It is unable to form mechanized combinations with the power of which it could defeat the Russian armed forces.
At the same time, Russia is also receiving reinforcements, but mobilization is becoming more difficult in Russia as well.
– They have had to increase the rewards paid to soldiers, which suggests that there are not huge numbers of willing people on every street corner, says Kastehelmi.
According to Kastehelme, Russia’s superiority in terms of equipment may start to show in 2026, when it gets its weapons production up to full speed.
Little information is available on the amount of weapons supplied to Ukraine by the West.
For example, information on how many F-16 fighter jets Ukraine has at its disposal is not publicly available. In any case, there are probably so few of them in use that they have practically no effect on the course of the war.
Regarding the tank equipment, it is known that Ukraine has used, among other things, American Bradley tanks and German Leopards in its attack on Kursk.
Ukraine initially received 31 American Abrams battle tanks. Some of them have been lost, some are under maintenance. Kastehelmi estimates that there are probably only twenty wagons in active use.