Agreement between Egypt, Eritrea and Somalia could exacerbate sub-regional tensions

Agreement between Egypt Eritrea and Somalia could exacerbate sub regional tensions

In Asmara, Eritrea, an unprecedented meeting was held and a meaningful agreement in this region of the Horn of Africa took place. The presidents of Eritrea, Somalia and Egypt agreed on Thursday October 10 to collaborate on regional security during a tripartite summit.

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This is a regional alliance which exacerbates sub-regional tensions where Somalia takes a dim view of the alliance concluded on January 1, between Somaliland and neighboring Ethiopia. Mogadishu considers that the agreement allowing Ethiopia to have access to the sea thanks to Somaliland amounts to a “ assault » against its sovereignty. Suffice to say that this tripartite alliance, facing Ethiopia, does not move towards appeasement for the region.

Contacted by RFI, René Lefort, researcher and specialist in the Horn of Africa, believes that this alliance augurs tense relations between the four countries.

On the Somali side, this agreement could result in the Shebabs – that is to say the Islamist guerrillas – taking advantage of the national sentiment “Somalia against Ethiopia” to recruit and arm. It could thus intervene in the Somali region of Ethiopia. Or, another possibility, it could push the irredentists of the Somali region of Ethiopia because, in fact, they have always more or less hoped to eye towards a reunification with Somalia.

Then, as far as Egypt is concerned now, it has no direct means to confront Ethiopia, but it supports Somalia – a military agreement has been reached, weapons have been sent – ​​and therefore Egypt would come in reinforcement of Somalia. But in addition to that, it is not excluded, at least for the moment, that, in his usual madness, Issayas Afewerki, the leader of Eritrea, decides to push his military pawns (I would say) into Ethiopia. »

Also readEthiopia’s agreement with Somaliland on access to the sea: Somalia poses an ultimatum to Addis Ababa

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