If Donald Trump is behind Kamala Harris in voting intentions at the national level, he is clearly progressing in the swing states, these “undecided” states which will decide the outcome of the American presidential election.
The American presidential election will take place on November 5, and less than a month before the vote, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are close in voting intentions. The Republican is slightly behind nationally according to the political analysis site 538from the American media ABC News, with 46% of potential votes against 48.4% for its competitor. According to the 270towins aggregatorDonald Trump is given at 46.9%, against 49.3% for Kamala Harris.
But it is more interesting to look at the “swing states”, those states whose election results vary depending on the vote, oscillating over the years between the right and the left. They are called pivotal states, which will decide the outcome of the election. And for a good week, the Republican candidate has made a notable comeback in these famous swing states. He is in the lead in four of them (out of seven): Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina and Michigan, where his Democratic competitor would only win in the next two, Wisconsin and Nevada. , Pennsylvania presenting a perfect tie on the date of October 10.
Donald Trump has been leading a campaign in recent weeks consisting of aggressive speeches making America the priority, in these states which are, for the most part, part of the Midwest. To convince Republican voters committed to his cause, but also voters who are still undecided, the Republican candidate for the White House is banking on a program well identified with the American right on the economic level or on the subject of immigration. He thus promised to work towards the relocation of companies and industries to the United States during a meeting in Georgia: “For years, we have witnessed the theft of our jobs by other countries. But from now on, we will “We’re going to take on their jobs and bring them back to America where they belong,” he said.
Donald Trump neck and neck with Kamala Harris in the polls
If the national polls give a slight advantage to the Democrats, of 2.4 points, it is at the state level that the vote will be played out, in particular around 7 to 8 states which change the political color of an election to the other: swing states. The American presidential election is an indirect vote: voters vote for representatives – the electors – whose number depends on the population density of each state (the more populated a territory, the more electors there are) and these The latter elect the presidents of the United States of America. When a state is won by one camp, all of its electors are allocated to a single camp, Republican or Democratic, and therefore to a single candidate. It is this number of electors that counts to be elected. You must win at least 270.
Donald Trump comes first in four of the seven swing states as of October 10, 2024 according to the compilation of surveys carried out by 270tonwins: Georgia (47.8% against 47.2% for Kamala Harris), Arizona with two points ahead (49.2% against 47.4%), North Carolina (48.6% against 47.4%) and Michigan (47.6% versus 47.4%). One state presents a perfect equality, it is Pennsylvania: the two candidates are credited with 48.1% of voting intentions less than a month before the election.
Kamala Harris is only between 0.4 and 0.8 points ahead in the last two swing states and has lost quite a bit of ground in these key areas in a week. The battle promises to be very close between the two candidates. Other territories are being watched closely because they are high stakes, such as Florida which has 30 voters and in which Donald Trump is in the lead with 50% of voting intentions, compared to 45% for his Democratic competitor.
Economy: lower taxes and development of cryptocurrencies
On September 5, in New York, Donald Trump said he wanted to put an end to “communism”. “Send Comrade Harris Home to California.” A taste of his program, to say the least cash, without concession. On the economic side, the real estate magnate is considering customs duties of “more than 10%” on all imports, to finance a “large tax cut for the middle class, the upper class, the lower class, business class,” he explains. At the same time, he intends to make the United States “the world capital of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies”. Elon Musk would then be entrusted with a complete audit of the American administration. “Elon, because he is not very busy, has agreed to lead this commission to completely eliminate fraud and wasteful spending in six months… This will save trillions of dollars.” In addition, relations with China could harden slightly. Donald Trump wants to revoke the “more favored nation” clause granted to China.
Impact on France and the European Union
Since the United States Trade Act of 1974, the American president has the ability to impose quotas and tariffs up to 15% higher for 150 days on countries that have significant surpluses in their balance of payments. payments with the United States. It could therefore go further than the 10% announced so far. Enough to generate a real economic and trade war between the USA and the EU. However, this scenario still appears unlikely, particularly because the EU remains the United States’ largest trading partner. This places the EU in a relatively solid position to discuss with Donald Trump and avoid overly drastic measures from the billionaire. The European Union benefits from a very high trade surplus vis-à-vis the United States, it should be able to accept some compromises, even if it means losing a little money, while maintaining at least courteous commercial relations with the States. -United. Donald Trump could instead ask European countries, as has already been mentioned in some of his campaign speeches, for a greater contribution to NATO.
Environment: end of regulations and abundant oil
Concerning the environment, the former President of the United States could be tempted to lift all possible regulations if he were to reach the White House. “For each new regulation, we will eliminate at least 10 old laws, and frankly we will have no trouble doing it,” he assured at the beginning of September. “I will quickly put an end to the great green scam” he has already promised in the event of a second term. “We are going to drill (for oil) like crazy” he announced to his supporters, so as to “lower energy prices very quickly”. In particular, he promises to cut energy costs “by half” for Americans.
Immigration: “the largest expulsion operation” of migrants
On the subject of immigration, Donald Trump’s program has the merit of being clear, he wishes to launch “the largest expulsion operation” of migrants as soon as he is elected if he were to join the White House. The American billionaire also plans to “use the army” to achieve his goals in order to expel migrants, then to open new detention camps. The automatic soil right will also be canceled in the event of the election of Donald Trump, “for children born to irregular migrants”. Joe Biden’s predecessor recently accused migrants of “poisoning the blood of the country”.
Abortion: Trump cultivates ambiguity
During the debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, a heated exchange took place on the issue of abortion. Kamala Harris notably criticized the former President of the United States for having appointed three conservative judges to the Supreme Court, so as to end the federal guarantee of voluntary termination of pregnancy in 2022. “I warned that we were going to hear a web of lies,” she says. A response to Donald Trump’s claim that babies are executed after birth in the United States. “Nowhere in America will a woman go to the end of her pregnancy to request an abortion. That never happens. It’s insulting to the women of America,” she continued. Donald Trump believes he has “rendered a huge service” to the country by returning the decision on the right to abortion to the States themselves.
On the other hand, Donald Trump maintains uncertainty regarding the future of abortions in the country. He does not position himself on the line of the American religious right, according to which we should promise an outright ban on abortion throughout the country through federal law. “You have to follow your soul and conscience on this issue, but don’t forget that you also have to win elections,” he said. According to Franceinfo, the Republican is trying to present himself as a defender of “reproductive rights”, an adjustment compared to his previous mandate. His wife, Melania Trump, speaks out in favor of women’s autonomy to decide about their bodies, in a memoir to be published on October 8.
Discreet on Gaza, Trump would resolve the war in Ukraine “in 24 hours”
If elected, Donald Trump would resolve the war in Ukraine “in 24 hours”. At least, that’s what the main person says. The problem is that the former president of the United States never really explained how he could even calm the conflicts in Ukraine. “I have a very specific plan to stop Ukraine and Russia. And I have a certain idea – maybe not a plan, but an idea – for China,” he said in an interview. As with abortion, Donald Trump persists in vagueness. Concerning the clashes in Gaza, he was a fervent defender of Israel during the Hamas attacks in October 2023. Since then, he does not really want to get involved on the subject, saying he is not “exactly sure how to worship the way” in which Israel is carrying out its offensive in Gaza. Should we understand that unconditional aid from the USA to Israel would be called into question if Donald Trump arrives at the White House? It’s an option.
Donald Trump’s campaign brings its share of false information – or fake news – and while some strengthens his electorate, most does a disservice to other voters. Virulent towards his rival and not failing to launch personal attacks, the billionaire accused Kamala Harris of having “become black” for electoral reasons, during an exchange with African-American journalists in Chicago end of July. The Democratic candidate is also attacked on her abilities to govern and represent the United States internationally since Donald Trump estimated in an interview with the conservative channel Fox News that foreign leaders would “step on her” if she acceded to the power.
The fake news relayed by Donald Trump does not only target his competitor, they also concern the Democratic camp accused of “executing babies” when discussing abortion during the debate against Kamala Harris on September 10. “They support the execution of babies after they are born – fine execution and no more abortion because the baby is born,” he falsely claimed. Some migrant communities have also been targeted with the famous phrase about the residents and migrants of Springfield, a small town in Ohio: “The people who came. They eat the cats. They eat… They eat the animals companionship of the people who live there. Information denied by the local authorities and the mediating journalist during the debate.