Faced with the challenge of having his austerity budget adopted by the National Assembly, deemed “gloomy” by LFI, Michel Barnier does not rule out using article 49.3 of the Constitution.
The Barnier government unveiled the 2025 budget project this Thursday, October 10. On the program: “60 million euros” in savings to support public finances. The new tenant of Matignon intends to decide on certain points. First, it proposes the biggest reduction in teaching positions since 2017, the draft budget removes 4,000 positions from National Education. A part of the project which already irritates La France insoumise.
Among the other measures, that of an exceptional tax on 65,000 fortunes which earn more than 250,000 euros per year, that of an “exceptional participation”, for two years, of large companies on the profits which “make a billion turnover or more” (440 groups concerned), but also an increase in taxation on polluting transport and an increase in the internal tax on final electricity consumption (TICFE). Currently €22.50/MwH, its amount should be around €50/MwH. From now on, the bill will be debated in the National Assembly between October 21 and 25, followed by a vote on Tuesday 29, then the Senate will take its turn.
“A butchery that will continue to make the French spit blood”
The Finance Bill (PLF) for the year 2025 has sparked strong reactions from certain oppositions. The National Education budget notably pissed off the ex-boss of the Insoumis, Jean-Luc Mélenchon:“After having spread misery, here is the organization of ignorance,” he says on X regarding the elimination of 4,000 teaching positions. Same story from Eric Coquerel, president of the finance committee and La France insoumise (LFI) deputy for Seine-Saint-Denis. He denounces “a super austerity budget”, which is “dark for the French, particularly the middle classes and the disadvantaged classes”. On the evening of the presentation of the budget, the deputy from the North Aurélien le Coq defined Michel Barnier’s project as a “social war budget (…) a butchery which will continue to make the French spit blood”, on the set from France Info in Political time.
On the side of the National Rally, hostility to the budget presented by the government was also felt, as evidenced by the comments of the RN deputy for the Somme, Jean-Philippe Tanguy on LCI:“The effort is very poorly distributed. We identify at least seven billion euros for the middle and working classes and only two billion euros for the most privileged. And that, for us, is unacceptable”, estimates- he. The policy of “rupture” hoped for by the far right from Michel Barnier is clearly not up to the expectations of the party in the flame.
A possible motion of censure from the left doomed to failure?
Enough to cast doubt on a motion of censure over the Barnier government. As a reminder, the motion of censure is a major parliamentary tool. Its objective: to lead, if adopted, to the resignation of the Prime Minister as well as his government. As part of the use of article 49.3 of the Constitution, it can be tabled by deputies. They must be at least 58, or one tenth of the National Assembly. To be adopted, it must receive 289 votes “for”, i.e. the absolute majority of the hemicycle. In the hypothesis of a relative majority (a majority of “for” but less than 289), it is not adopted.
If the National Rally, in the person of Sébastien Chenu (vice-president of the RN) had already indicated that the party “will not vote”, the Finance Bill even before the presentation of the budget, the exit of Jean-Philippe Tanguy today casts real doubt on the position of the National Rally. As a reminder, the Lepéniste party benefits from a role of arbiter in this National Assembly fractured since the dissolution by Emmanuel Macron. So far, the RN is playing its card: it is in opposition, but supports this government by refusing to censor it. The Prime Minister is therefore undoubtedly banking on the benevolent neutrality of the far right in the event of recourse to 49.3.
With 143 deputies, the RN and its allies could very well bring down the government by voting on a motion of censure initiated by the New Popular Front (182 seats). The two forces would then have an absolute majority (289 votes needed) to overthrow Michel Barnier and his entire team. In fact, the National Rally could decide to abstain on the budget vote, however, it is likely that the entire left will vote against, and that a certain number of deputies from the central bloc refuse to vote for . Which would not be enough to overthrow the Barnier government. For the moment, no motion of censure has been tabled against the Barnier government after the presentation of the PLF 2025. Does the tax increase for businesses transgress the famous “red lines”, dictated by the RN a few weeks earlier? Answers in the coming days.
Michel Barnier: “if we don’t succeed, we will use the 49.3”
Without an absolute majority in the Assembly, and only having a parliamentary base of 220 elected officials who have expressed their discontent on various points – including the increase in taxes – Michel Barnier still seems to be at an impasse. The Prime Minister finds himself facing a historic challenge to have the 2025 budget adopted before December 31. In this context, he did not hesitate, on October 3 on the set of France 2, to brandish the threat of article 49.3 of the Constitution to adopt the 2025 budget. “There is no majority therefore We will see. I would like it to be adopted by the National Assembly. It will be a difficult, serious and responsible budget. But if we do not succeed, we will use 49.3, which is a tool of the Constitution. , declared the tenant of Matignon. A lever which, if it were to be activated, would almost automatically trigger the filing of a motion of censure from the New Popular Front.
Paragraph 3 of Article 49 of the Constitution appears in Title V of the Constitution. This legal system serves to regulate “relations between the government and Parliament”. The Prime Minister is the person who can use it after deliberation by the Council of Ministers. It is then possible to suspend the examination of a particularly controversial bill within the National Assembly, and therefore of all the negotiations that accompany it. This would allow the presidential camp to force a text through, therefore without a vote, despite opposition, and to speed up the legislative procedure. On the other hand, the Prime Minister takes the risk of having to resign if a motion of censure tabled by the opposition, within 24 hours, is voted on. The law states that in the event of a rejection of this motion of censure, “the project or proposal is considered adopted.” On the other hand, if it is adopted, “the text is rejected and the Government is overthrown”.