The US presidential election is less than a month away and Kamala Harris is leading the polls, but the score is close. The campaign promises to be tough during the final, decisive days.
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump face off in a tight electoral campaign less than a month before the US presidential election. According to the latest polls from Siena College for the New York Times, Kamala Harris is three points ahead of Donald Trump. The Democratic candidate stands out in the polls against her predecessor, Joe Bidenwhose state of health worried voters who preferred to turn to Donald Trump.
However, victory is not yet assured. Kamala Harris and the Democratic camp must resist the various attacks from Donald Trump, more or less well-founded. As a reminder, the former Republican president has several times described his opponent as “crazy” and even “mentally disabled”. More recently, he used the aftermath of natural disasters to attack the current vice president. “This is someone who will steal your fortune and abandon you and your family when the waters rise,” he summarized while some Americans are still suffering from the consequences of Hurricane Helene. , which left more than 200 people dead in the southeastern United States in late September, and Hurricane Milton that followed on October 10.
The vice-president, candidate for the White House, visited the states affected by Hurricane Helene, especially since several of them are part of the “swing states” so decisive for the vote, notably Carolina North and Georgia. If Kamala Harris went there as a member of the presidential team, she was also there as a candidate to counter the accusations of Donald Trump, who criticizes the Democratic camp for not having done enough to prevent the risks or to respond to them after the passage of the hurricane. Remarks that could leave traces in the minds of voters.
The candidacy of Kamala Harris to replace that of Joe Biden placed the vice-president at the top of voting intentions, when the tenant of the White House was struggling to win against Donald Trump. According to surveys recorded by the site 270 to winnationally, Kamala Harris has a lead of 2.4 points with 49.3%, compared to 46.9% for Donald Trump (data dated October 10, 2024).
But the results of the state polls are very close, and these are the ones that count. According to the American voting system, each state won guarantees a certain number of votes out of the 538 electors who vote to elect the American president. Most of the 50 states are won by a political party, but the “swing states” swing to the right or left depending on the elections. The latter, which are ten in number (Arizona, North Carolina, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin) must be won in order to win. ensure access to the White House.
Kamala Harris may have had a small lead in certain states in recent weeks, sometimes up to 3 points, but one month before the elections the differences are slim. Kamala Harris remains favorite in four out of ten swing states with 0.8 points ahead in Nevada, 6 points in Minessota, 7.6 in New Mexico and 0.4 in Wisconsin according to poll aggregator 270towin . Conversely, it is slightly behind in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. Except in Florida, she never leaves more than 2 points ahead of her opponent. Everything is still possible for Kamala Harris.
Kamala Harris is basing part of her campaign on selected points from her program. The Democratic candidate has made the defense of purchasing power for the middle classes her hobby horse with the right to abortion, always taking care to distinguish herself from the policies of Donald Trump. But several political commentators criticize him for remaining on the surface by citing key measures without tackling the substance of certain subjects. The vice-president, proposing a Democratic program, is also campaigning on points already present in Joe Biden’s campaign, but must seek to stand out, sometimes by showing herself to be more centrist than the American president.
- Defense of purchasing power: while the economy is a central concern for Americans, at a time when inflation continues to be felt and weighs on the employment and housing sectors, Kamala Harris poses as a defender of purchasing power. She says she wants to “give money back to middle and working class families” when Donald Trump fights “for billionaires and big businesses”. And to convince, she cites three strong measures: a birth tax credit, assistance for first-time home buyers or even a boost for business creation. She also promises a reduction in inflation to 3% and price controls for basic necessities and medicines. For the richest, the situation is different since Kamala Harris plans to tax the capital gains of households earning more than a million dollars per year at 28%. This is more than the current rate, but less than the 39% desired by Joe Biden.
- Ecological measures : the ecological aspect is not the most substantiated part of Kamala Harris’ program, but the candidate is investing in the subject to distance herself from Donald Trump who broke with the Paris agreements during his presidential mandate. If she defends “the right to breathe clean air, to drink clean water and to live without the pollution that fuels the climate crisis”, she does not specify how. At the same time, she is making about-faces on several measures that she defended in the past: no longer a question of opposing hydraulic fracturing, a technique which allows rocks to be cracked to extract hydrocarbons, no longer a question of banning plastic straws and other waste of the type yet replaceable. Following on from Joe Biden, Kamala Harris says she is in favor of the inflation reduction act (IRA), a set of ecological, economic and social measures.
- Migration policy : Immigration is another big issue in the presidential campaign on which Kamala Harris is balancing. She wants to be firm to attract the moderate right, but not too closed so as not to scare away the left. However, the candidate announced a toughening of migration policy involving “consequences” for illegal migrants and investments in physical barriers at the border with Mexico.
- Social measures : Kamala Harris above all placed social issues at the heart of her campaign, starting with the right to abortion in the face of a Republican camp behind the tightening of access to abortion in several states. The defense of minorities is also a central point of the campaign.
- International : in terms of foreign policy, Kamala Harris positions herself mainly on Ukraine and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. On the latter, she reiterated her commitment to the defense of the Jewish state and clarified that she would not suspend American arms deliveries to Israel in the event of victory, but she also wishes to appear less pro-Israeli. than Joe Biden and condemned the violence perpetrated against Palestinian civilians. She said “far too many innocent Palestinians had been killed” and called for “a ceasefire.” As for Ukraine, it reaffirms the United States’ support for the country after the Russian invasion. Moreover, she singled out Donald Trump for his good relations with leaders Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un and assured that she would not make “friends” with dictators.
The momentum gained by Kamala Harris since the formalization of her candidacy has not suffered from the debate which opposed Donald Trump on September 10, on the contrary. While the Democrat’s qualities as a debater remained to be proven, and left some skeptical, the former prosecutor did not give in to the Republican and his tough-guy appearance or his aggressive attacks. Moreover, in the general opinion of the American press, she emerged victorious from the duel which will remain the only one of the campaign.
The Democratic candidate was able to take advantage of her duel against Trump and the constraints imposed in particular on the closing of microphones, both in form and on the front. If Kamala Harris was serious, solid and active when defending her ideas or countering those of Donald Trump, she also showed a mischievous side without ever being unpleasant or condescending, by making fun of her opponent when the latter put forward fake news and appeared more grumpy, even annoyed, and multiplying the rumblings undeniably reminiscent of his age, approaching 80 years, compared to the 59 years of Kamala Harris.
Kamala Harris’ personal journey is impressive and the vice-president knows how to remember it. “I am empirical proof of the promise of America,” she regularly explains. African-American, of Jamaican origins through her father and Indian through her mother, and from an academic background, she became the first woman to be elected prosecutor of San Francisco, before becoming attorney general of California from 2011 to 2017. As a woman, Kamala Harris is likely to obtain a better score than Joe Biden, but especially than Donald Trump, with American voters. The Democrats have historically recorded good scores in this electorate and hope to further capitalize on these votes with their candidate.
If Kamala Harris is a pure Democrat from California who convinces in historically Democratic states, she may have more difficulty convincing in the Midwest states which lean to the Republican side or swing from one camp to another depending on the polls. To attract this electorate, his running mate Tim Walz could be a good asset. Governor of Minnesota, the politician so popular in the Midwest that he was appointed in place of Josh Shapiro, another popular Democrat in this region of the United States. The vice-presidential candidate also provides balance and reassures the male electorate as a white man alongside a female and black candidate.
Born on October 20, 1964 in Oakland, California to a Jamaican father, professor of economics at Stanford University, and an Indian mother and an oncologist by profession, Kamala Harris began by obtaining her baccalaureate in the United States before earning a degree in political science at Howard University in Washington, then a second law degree in Hastings, California. Married since 2014 to lawyer Douglas Emhoff, Kamala Harris has two children from a first marriage: Cole and Ella.
In 1990, she joined the California bar and started as an assistant district attorney for Alameda County before being elected district attorney for the San Francisco district, from 2004 to 2011. She is the first woman to hold this position in the United States. , before becoming Attorney General of California from 2010 to 2017. January 3, 2017 marked a turning point in the political career of Kamala Harris, she was elected as senator of California in place of Barbara Boxer. She then became the second black senator in the United States. A mandate that she will hold until 2021. During these years, she campaigned in particular against racial discrimination, the migration policy led by Donald Trump and supported the Black Lives Matter movement after the death of George Floyd.
Meanwhile, Kamala Harris is a candidate for the nomination for the 2020 presidential election, but ultimately withdraws before the official start of the primaries. Joe Biden chooses her as his running mate and Democratic vice-presidential candidate. The duo won and became president of the country in 2020 by defeating Donald Trump. Kamala Harris also becomes the first African and Asian-American person to hold such a position. In August 2024, she became the Democratic Party candidate for the presidential election in November, after Joe Biden withdrew from the race for the White House. She therefore faces Donald Trump, to try to run for a first term as president of the United States.