A major war in the Middle East would not necessarily promote Russia’s interests, writes Russia correspondent Heikki Heiskanen.
Heikki HeiskanenRussia correspondent
MOSCOW Russia benefits from the escalation of violence in the Middle East. Thus are many western commentators evaluated After the start of the Gaza war.
The idea is that the crisis will take US attention away from supporting Ukraine. In addition, instability in the Middle East can increase the world market price of oil, which would benefit Russia as an oil exporter.
However, the Russian expert interviewed by disagrees.
The conflict in the Middle East no longer affects the price of oil as strongly as before, he says. The war in Ukraine, on the other hand, has already turned into a certain kind of routine in Western politics, so the events in the Middle East will not greatly affect that either.
In the current conditions of Russia, the expert does not want to present his assessment by name.
Russia also has very limited means affects the situation in the Middle East, the expert estimates.
Russia can mainly hold discussions with the parties and try to make use of the personal relationships it has built in the past.
Russia has tried to play the role of mediator in the Middle East. However, this balancing act has become difficult when Russia’s relations with Iran have become closer during Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine.
Other countries in the Middle East consider Russia to have chosen its side, evaluate investigator Nikita Smagin in an August Carnegie Foundation analysis.
Russia has no solid allies in the region. The rapprochement between Iran and Russia is mostly dictated by the situation.
The countries are united by the struggle against US influence. However, Russia does not intend to go to war on behalf of Iran.
Iran is hoping for Su-35 fighters and advanced anti-aircraft equipment from Russia, among other things. Western powers accuse Iran of supplying Russia with drones and ballistic missiles
The escalation of violence in the Middle East may even hinder cooperation between Iran and Russia, if Iran needs its own missiles and drones.
In the bloody Syrian civil war, Russia came in 2015 by the Syrian president Bashar al-Assad in support of. Russian armed forces are still present in Syria at the Hmeimim air base and the Tartus naval base.
Syria is not a strong ally of Russia either. In its bases in Syria, Russia is rather a hostage of the situation. The state is scattered, and Assad barely controls even his own forces. Different clans each control their own parts of the armed forces and state structures.
The dissatisfaction of the Syrian regime with Russia is increased by the fact that Russia has not used its air defense to prevent Israeli attacks on Syria.
This also shows that Russia does not want to be a party to the conflict.
Russia’s relations with Israel have weakened, when Russia is getting closer to Iran.
If Russia’s relations with Israel were positively neutral before the Gaza war, now they can be characterized as very neutral, the Russian expert formulates.
Israel has not been eager to arm Ukraine, and Russia certainly hopes this line will remain.
Russia is probably counting on the fact that even if it escalates, the conflict in the Middle East will remain under some kind of control, because it would be in the interests of both Iran and Israel to avoid a direct war with each other.