“We are on the brink of an irreversible climate catastrophe. This is undoubtedly a global emergency. Much of the very fabric of life on Earth is at risk.” The conclusion of an international study published on October 8 in the review BioScience is clear… and sends shivers down the spine. In this report entitled “2024 State of the Climate Report”, a group bringing together some of the world’s leading climate experts highlight that 25 of the 35 “vital signs” of our planet that they have been monitoring for several years have now reached record levels. The list of warnings is unprecedented: the past year was the hottest on record. Ocean temperatures and levels, as well as their acidity, are at record highs. The ice in the Arctic, Antarctica and glaciers around the world are melting 31% faster than fifteen years ago. The authors add that the melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets could be irreversible over several centuries, even if CO2 emissions were reduced.
Deforestation has also increased, going from 23 million hectares destroyed in 2022 to 28 million in 2023 (the equivalent of a country like Ecuador). Result: the Amazon, once a carbon sink, has transformed into a net emitter of CO2. And our consumption of fossil fuels has also increased by another 1.5%. There has never been so much carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) in our atmosphere in human memory. William Ripple, professor emeritus at Oregon State University and main co-author of the report, details in L’Express his conclusions and his vision of the future of humanity in a world confronted with the horrors of global warming. In particular, he advocates the adoption of a sufficiently high carbon price to reduce emissions. Interview.
L’Express: In this new report, you conclude that the future of humanity is “on a point of balance”. Is our generation at risk of experiencing the beginnings of a new era for the human race?
William Ripple: Since around 1850 we have seen a rapid acceleration in the consumption of fossil fuels and other human activities. The climatic consequences of this acceleration are increasingly severe and include devastating heat waves, intense tropical storms and significant flooding. This set suggests that humanity has entered uncharted territory, a very dangerous new era.
In your opinion, and even if you cannot predict the future with accuracy, what will the climate be like in 2050? In 2100? And what will be the place of humanity on Earth during these periods?
The actions we take today can have a major effect on the state of tomorrow’s climate. If we continue with current policies, we could end up with 2.7°C of warming by 2100. This level of warming would be truly catastrophic and could result in many millions of deaths. We therefore believe, with the climatologists around the world who wrote this study, that limiting future warming must be a top priority now.
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© / Sabrina BLANCHARD, Jan MROZINSKI / AFP
We take more than our Earth can safely give. And this is pushing our planet towards climatic conditions more threatening than anything our prehistoric parents were able to observe. Since the publication of our 2023 report, numerous climate-related disasters have occurred, including a series of heatwaves in Asia that killed more than a thousand people and caused temperatures to reach 50°C in some parts of the world. ‘India. Climate change has already displaced millions of people, and could displace hundreds of millions, if not billions, more. This would likely lead to greater geopolitical instability, perhaps even a partial collapse of society.
What do you recommend to world leaders to stop the collapse of wildlife, reduce greenhouse gas emissions and make the planet more livable for humanity by the end of the century?
We must prioritize rapidly reducing the use of fossil fuels globally. For example, adopting a global carbon price could help reduce emissions and provide funds to support climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts. We also need a broader transformation of the economy so that the well-being and basic needs of all are prioritized.
Do you still think, like most scientists, that it is not too late? Can we still limit global warming? Or even reverse it?
Preventing even minimal warming in the future could save millions of lives. So it is certainly not too late to tackle climate change and other environmental problems. We must also work to reverse the damage done. For example, protecting and restoring forests can help maintain biodiversity while removing carbon from the atmosphere, contributing to global cooling.
Do you think that, as the writer writes Guardianthere should be a policy to reduce the size of the human population? Is this really desirable when the world, and in particular the West, is facing a worrying decline in births ?
It is clear that we need policies that limit the overconsumption of the richest people, simply because they have contributed disproportionately to the climate crisis we are experiencing. At the same time, there is a need for socially just policies that promote gender equality and educational opportunities, particularly for women. Such measures can indeed lead to a reduction in fertility rates in certain regions of the world and an improvement in the quality of life, but in a completely indirect way. You know, there will be nearly 10 billion humans on Earth by 2080-2100. Our planet is simply not made to absorb the consumption of such a population, at least not if everyone tends to consume like Americans or Europeans. In addition, each additional tenth of a degree will make certain parts of the planet completely uninhabitable, effectively reducing our living space. Even without global collapse, climate change could cause many millions more deaths by 2050. We need bold, transformative change.
Beyond this aspect, it is also essential to restore and rewild ecosystems, or to integrate climate change education into global school curricula to stimulate awareness and action. Because the answer will come from us, and from future generations. The future of humanity is at stake. Only by taking decisive action can we preserve our world, avoid profound human suffering, and ensure that future generations inherit the livable planet they deserve.
The possible election of Donald Trump in the United States next November would send a very negative signal in terms of climate and environmental protection. Are you worried?
We believe the United States should be a leader in climate and environmental protection, particularly because it is a wealthy country that has contributed greatly to the climate crisis. Overall, we are concerned that U.S. leaders are not taking enough action to address climate change.
Europe wants to be one of the leaders in the fight against climate change. Is the European Union doing enough in your opinion?
We appreciate the European Union’s efforts to mitigate the effects of climate change, although we believe that more ambitious plans to reduce emissions are needed.
If we had to choose a single measure to urgently implement to save humanity, which would you recommend?
At this point, we believe that saving humanity from catastrophic climate change will require large-scale action across many areas of society. That said, agreeing on a sufficiently high global carbon price is probably one of the best specific climate policy actions that can be taken.
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