How the war in the Middle East is shaking up the American presidential campaign – L’Express

How the war in the Middle East is shaking up

Donald Trump has been repeating it for a year: with him in power, there would never have been October 7 in Israel, the Republican candidate for the presidential election wants to believe. The former president understood this well: the conflicts in the Middle East should play a major role during the presidential election, while Washington is Israel’s closest ally.

Joe Biden, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump on Monday marked the first anniversary of Hamas’ unprecedented attack on Israel. “I remain fully committed to the security of the Jewish people, the security of Israel and its right to exist,” the American president said in a statement. “I am devastated by the pain and mourning caused on October 7,” said Vice-President Kamala Harris, Democratic candidate for the White House. “We are not giving up. We are doing everything possible for a ceasefire agreement and the release of hostages in Gaza,” she said.

His rival Donald Trump, for his part, visited the grave of an ultra-Orthodox rabbi in New York on Monday, before organizing a ceremony, with the feel of a campaign rally, in one of his properties in Florida. “We must never forget the nightmare” of October 7, launched the Republican candidate. The former president, who moved the American embassy to Jerusalem during his mandate, pledged that “the Jewish state would no longer be threatened with destruction” if he was elected on November 5.

Kamala Harris’ balancing act

Since the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, the war in the Middle East has not only continually weighed on the American electoral campaign, but it could also influence the outcome of the election. On the Democratic side, Kamala Harris is walking on eggshells. She succeeded as party candidate to Joe Biden whose frank and constant support displayed for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – reiterated at the end of last September by releasing 8.7 billion dollars in military aid for Israel – earned him to alienate part of the left wing and American Muslims.

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Aware of the division within her party on the question of the Israeli offensive in Gaza, Kamala Harris is playing the balancing act. Essentially, she followed in the footsteps of Joe Biden, who had been in Tel Aviv on October 18, 2023 to demonstrate to Benjamin Netanyahu the “eternal” support of the United States. The Democrat thus vigorously defends “Israel’s right to defend itself”, without calling into question American military aid. But she was more insistent than the president on a request for a ceasefire in Gaza and promised not to “remain silent” in the face of the suffering of the Palestinians. Kamala Harris also cited an impediment to Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to Congress on July 24. A notable absence when dozens of Democratic representatives had chosen to boycott this speech.

All eyes on Michigan

‘I personally don’t know anyone who will vote for Kamala Harris,’ says with the New York Times Shiite imam Hassan Qazwini, founder of the Islamic Institute of America in Dearborn Heights. He indicated that he planned to vote for a third party this year, after having supported Joe Biden in 2020.

Eyes are particularly focused on Michigan, a state likely to swing the outcome of the presidential election, and where a large population of Arab and Muslim voters live. Four years ago, Joe Biden won Michigan with the support of many of these Americans. “Given the large proportion of voters in Michigan who are Arab-American, and given how the electoral college works, concerns about the Palestinians can influence the result,” Michael Traugott, AFP, told AFP. professor of political science at the University of Michigan.

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As reported by New York Timessupport for the Democratic candidate has not only eroded among Arab Americans and Muslims, but it has virtually disappeared in some neighborhoods of this key state. Sereene Hijazi, a 28-year-old voter who is part of Michigan’s large Lebanese-American population, tells the American daily that she cannot bring herself to support Kamala Harris. She is indeed saddened by the idea that weapons supplied by the United States endanger the members of her family. “I feel very guilty,” says Sereene Hijazi, specifying that she leans towards the ecologist Jill Stein, the candidate of the Green Party. “A lot of Arab-Americans feel guilty because, for example, we are here, we are safe, but it is our taxes that are killing our loved ones and the people we know,” said this voter, who long considered a Democrat.

Donald Trump’s sweeping statements

On the Republican side, Donald Trump constantly describes a planet on the brink of World War III, attributing this apocalyptic situation to the Joe Biden-Kamala Harris tandem. The septuagenarian billionaire intends to take advantage of the tensions in the Middle East to make up for his delay within the American Jewish electorate, which mainly favors Kamala Harris in its voting intentions. “She hates Israel,” said Donald Trump during the debate between the two candidates on September 10. The Republican went so far as to say that Jews should have their heads “examined” if they voted Democratic. He further argued that Israel would cease to exist in less than two years if Kamala Harris was elected. Finally, Donald Trump said that Jews could be held responsible if he lost the election.

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With these sweeping statements, the Republican undoubtedly hopes to gain points in the states of New York and Pennsylvania, which have a large Jewish population. But his comments sparked negative reactions. The American Jewish Committee denounced “dangerous” rhetoric and the Jewish Council for Public Affairs (JCPA) criticized the candidate for using “anti-Semitic stereotypes”.

Donald Trump has also sowed confusion over the unconditional support he would give to the Israeli government if he were elected for a new term. In October 2023, he described the Israeli Minister of Defense, Yoav Gallant, as a “moron”, and criticized Benjamin Netanyahu in the wake of the October 7 massacres. Relations between the former US president and the Israeli Prime Minister have deteriorated since Benjamin Netanyahu congratulated Joe Biden on his victory in the 2020 presidential election, a gesture that Donald Trump perceived as a betrayal. However, the two men met again last July in the United States.

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