There are four weeks left until the US presidential election, and these are the “ Swing States », these key States, which attract all the attention. This is where the vote will be played out: in Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, South Carolina, as well as in Midwestern states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. Focus on Michigan, this industrial state of the Great Lakes that must be won to win the presidential election.
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Historically, this industrial state voted more for the Republicans. It was Bill Clinton who created a surprise in 1992 by winning Michigan for the Democrats. Voters remained loyal to the party of the donkey until 2016, when a certain Donald Trump managed to seduce the famous blue-collar workers, the workers in the automobile industry, against a Hillary Clinton who did not even have campaigned in Michigan, as she thought this state had been acquired.
A trauma that still haunts Democrats today. Four years ago, Joe Biden managed to bring this state back into the Democratic camp. But this year, the results look very close between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. They have to fight for every vote, which is why they travel regularly in this state which has 15 electoral votes.
Which groups of voters will weigh in the vote?
Two groups of voters will be decisive: African-Americans and Arab-Americans. Michigan is not only the state with the largest Arab-Muslim community in the country, it is also home to one of the largest black communities (the majority of Detroit residents are African-American). These two electorates, formerly won by the Democrats, could partly turn their backs on them this year.
The war in Gaza has caused many Arab-Americans to distance themselves from President Joe Biden, who has been criticized for his support for Israel. Even if Kamala Harris displays more empathy for the Palestinians, it is not certain that this will translate into votes. The same goes for African-Americans, who expect real commitments, particularly financial ones. They are often the most affected by inflation and the rising cost of living. Their mobilization will be crucial for Kamala Harris if she wants to win this state on November 5. Surveys have shown: if Hillary Clinton lost Michigan in 2016, it was in particular because of a drop in participation in Wayne County, which includes Detroit and its suburbs. It is therefore no coincidence that the team of Kamala Harris puts the spotlight on this cityfocusing on the African-American community.
The economy, top concern for Michigan voters
All the polls show it: the economy remains the main concern of Michigan voters, ahead of quality of life and immigration. According to a report published by NPR“ both parties try to focus on the economy “.
Republican Party ads claim that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are responsible for inflation, while the vice president’s messages highlight plans to improve the situation of the middle class and criticize the tax cuts of the Trump era, considered favorable to the richest. In order to win back Michigan, Donald Trump is trying, for its part, to once again seduce blue-collar workers, these workers in the declining automobile industry who voted for Joe Biden in 2020. He brought out his old (unkept) promise from 2016, promising them to make of Michigan the “ car capital of the world “.
Seduce the workers of the Rust Belt, the industrial region of the northeastern United States, which includes Michigan, is also Kamala Harris’s objective, but the task is proving complicated. The proof: two important unions, that of truckers and that of firefighters, traditionally pro-democrats, decided this year not to officially support any candidates. As pointed out by New Yorkera possible victory for Kamala Harris also depends on this question: “ Can she stop workers from voting for Donald Trump? ? »
Also listenMajor Report – Michigan, inflation at the heart of the worker vote