Motion of censure of the NFP: who will vote for it? The Barnier government already fixed

Motion of censure of the NFP who will vote for

Members of the National Assembly must vote for or against censorship of the Barnier government this Tuesday, October 8. Tabled and supported by the left, the text must receive the support of around a hundred other elected officials to be adopted.

The Prime Minister is playing his role in Matignon this Tuesday, October 8 with the vote on the first motion of censure against his government. The appointment is made this afternoon at the National Assembly. The boss of the Socialist Party (PS), Olivier Faure, will defend the text supported by almost all of the 193 deputies of the New Popular Front (NFP). Threatened, Michel Barnier will be able to respond to elected officials from the platform where he delivered his general policy speech exactly a week ago. If the motion of censure will be presented in the middle of the afternoon, the result of the vote should only be known at the end of the day after the presidents of each parliamentary group have spoken.

With its motion of censure, the left alliance wants to denounce the composition of the government seen as proof that the “negation of the result of the last legislative elections”. “This will be the moment of truth. We will see who opposes the government and who does not,” added the first secretary of the PS who wants to clarify the positions of each political force. The fact remains that the Barnier government should, unless the situation turns around, resist this motion of censure.

To succeed, a motion of censure must be voted for by the majority of deputies present in the hemicycle at the time of the vote, i.e. 289 votes if all 577 deputies are present. However, the NFP, if it is the first coalition in the Assembly, only has 192 votes. It is therefore missing almost a hundred votes that only the National Rally (RN) is capable of providing with its 126 deputies (142 if we add the deputies from Eric Ciotti’s group). Problem: he has already made it known that he will not vote for this motion of censure. And if censorship seems to tempt a few elected officials from the “common base” who support the Prime Minister, the latter, if they succumb, will not be numerous enough to overthrow the government.

The RN will not censor today but…

“We will judge you on your actions, never, unlike others, starting from childish postures” declared Marine Le Pen on October 1 in response to Michel Barnier’s general policy speech. It thus confirmed the refusal of the RN to vote for the motion of censure promised by the left and to oppose the government “a priori”. Instead, she “gives a chance” to the Prime Minister, but she does not rule out supporting a motion of censure later.

The RN conditions its non-participation on a motion of censure on several “red lines” to which the government must adhere: a start on migration policy with an immigration law expected in early 2025, compensation for tax increases “by purchasing power returned to our modest working fellow citizens” and finally the respect of the elected representatives of the RN. This last point seems to have been assimilated by Michel Barnier and transmitted, sometimes firmly, to ministers. The far right therefore intends to play the role of arbiter and hang a sword of Damocles over the government.

The government therefore has every interest in satisfying the RN sufficiently to avoid a motion of censure. But the “common base”, which will not always be able to adhere to the ideas of the extreme right, is banking on an impossible rapprochement between the NFP and the RN even if it is to overthrow it. However, a motion of censure is the expression of opposition to the government, not the birth of an alliance between political forces. A joint vote by the left and the far right is therefore possible even if it is motivated by different reasons.

Left-wing voters, who saw the NFP come first in the legislative elections, are opposed to the Barnier government and are therefore in favor of censorship. On the far right, the slightest misstep by the executive could give rise to censorship. The oppositions could therefore come together on a motion of censure tabled after the examination of a bill, starting with the revision of the pension reform. While the NFP and the RN are calling for its repeal, the government is only just agreeing to adjustments…

The government censored by its own camp?

Support for a motion of censure could come from within part of the “common base” formed by the presidential party (EPR), the Republicans (LR), the Democratic Movement (MoDem) and Horizons in the Assembly. The presidential party and its allies support the government since they participate in it, but the left wing of the coalition could break away and oppose an executive leaning too far to the right. A breach that the left intends to exploit. “I see MoDem deputies saying that they hesitate to censor this government. I see Macronist deputies themselves who do not find themselves in the comments [des ministres]”slipped to RMC the socialist deputy Philippe Brun who calls on these same elected officials to support censorship.

Some, who have already turned away from the coalition, are considering supporting a motion of censure like Sacha Houlié or Stella Dupont who now sit with the non-registered. The threat should not materialize with the first motion of censure, but nothing is assured for future attempts.

The government must also be wary of the Liot group. If certain deputies in the group refuse to vote for censure, a handful of elected officials seem tempted and could contribute a few votes to the text.

A limited number of motions of censure?

There is no limit to the number of motions that can be filed. If the first is therefore doomed to failure, others could succeed later. The only rules provide that each text must be signed by one tenth of the elected representatives of the National Assembly, i.e. 58 deputies, and that each elected representative cannot sign more than three motions of censure per parliamentary session, that is to say between October and June. The left has 193 elected officials, it can alone table up to nine motions of censure. RN elected officials can defend at least six of them and that’s without counting on the other deputies who could sign motions.

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