The deputies of the National Assembly are considering this Tuesday, October 8, the motion of censure tabled by the New Popular Front last week.
It was the boss of the socialists, Olivier Faure, who was appointed to defend the text. This Tuesday afternoon, deputies must vote on the motion of censure tabled Friday by almost all the members of the New Popular Front. Almost, because one of the 193 NFP deputies did not join the initiative. With 192 votes in favor of this motion of censure, therefore, the left will have to count on at least a hundred other elected officials, notably those of the RN, to validate its text.
But barring an unexpected turnaround, Prime Minister Michel Barnier and his government should pass this first motion of censure with flying colors. To be validated, it must in fact be voted on by the majority of deputies present in the hemicycle at the time of the vote, i.e. 289 votes if all 577 deputies are present. However, the NFP, if it is the first coalition in the Assembly, only has 192 votes in this matter. He needs the reserve of votes that constitutes the RN and its 126 deputies. Problem: he has already made it known that he will not vote for the motion of censure. “We are against the brothelization of the country,” Olivier Guibert, a member of the RN, further justified himself on this subject to The New Republic this Monday. The 126 deputies of the National Rally should a priori be joined by the 220 elected officials from the Macron camp, enough to pass the bar of 289 votes and definitively dampen the hopes of the left, which considers that the government of Michel Barnier “is a negation of the result of the last legislative elections” in which the NFP came first.
The RN “refuses censorship a priori” but…
Marine Le Pen refuses to consider her party as supporting the government which was formed through “arrangements, withdrawals and schemes”. But the president of the RN group in the Assembly also refused to “censor a priori” the executive. She therefore announced “to give a chance” to the Prime Minister “out of patriotism, out of consideration for our compatriots who are suffering, out of respect for our institutions” after Michel Barnier’s general policy speech. The upcoming motion of censure, which will not be supported by the RN, therefore seems doomed to failure.
If a chance is given, it is also and above all conditional, because Marine Le Pen has set her “red lines” or rather the conditions which, if they are met, will keep her away from a motion of censure. First non-negotiable demand: a jump on migration policy with an immigration law expected in early 2025. The leader of the far right also demands that the tax increase planned by the government be “compensated by purchasing power returned to our modest fellow citizens who work and have seen their food supply melt away for three years.” Respect and consideration for the elected representatives of the RN and their ideas is another condition, but Marine Le Pen did not remind the Assembly of this. The message seems to have been assimilated by Michel Barnier and transmitted, sometimes firmly, to ministers.
The RN intends to play referee, but it does not rule out voting or filing a motion of censure against the Barnier government if the latter does not live up to its demands. A position of strength made possible by the tripartite distribution of forces in the National Assembly and which the party intends to take advantage of. Especially since the RN can also count on the fifteen Ciottist deputies that it counts among its allies.
Censorship supported by the NFP and the RN possible
The government has every interest in satisfying the RN sufficiently to avoid a motion of censure, but the “common base” formed behind it by the right and the presidential coalition will not always be able to meet the demands of the far right. He then hopes that a rapprochement, even opportunistic, between the NFP and the RN to vote for censorship will not happen. However, a motion of censure is the expression of opposition to the government, not the birth of an alliance between political forces. A joint vote for the left and the far right is therefore possible if it is justified by the voters of the respective camps.
Left-wing voters, who saw the NFP come first in the legislative elections, are opposed to the Barnier government and are therefore in favor of censorship. On the far right, the slightest misstep by the executive could give rise to censorship. The oppositions could therefore come together on a motion of censure tabled after the examination of a bill, starting with the revision of the pension reform. While the NFP and the RN are calling for its repeal, the government is only just agreeing to adjustments…
The government censored by its own camp?
Support for a motion of no confidence could come from within the “common core”. The presidential party and allied political groups (MoDem, Horizons, UDI) support the government since they participate in it, but the left wing of the coalition could break away and oppose an executive leaning too far to the right. A breach that the left intends to exploit. “I see MoDem deputies saying that they hesitate to censor this government. I see Macronist deputies themselves who do not find themselves in the comments [des ministres]”slipped to RMC the socialist deputy Philippe Brun who calls on these same elected officials to support censorship.
Some express doubts and others turn away from the majority by leaving the parliamentary group like Sacha Houlié, former pillar of the Macronist left wing who now sits with the non-registered and threatens to vote for censure. The elected Stella Dupont followed the same path due to several differences with the government, but also with the presidential camp. The MP does not rule out voting for a motion of censure: “It’s possible, even if it’s not at all what I want. We need stability, work, compromise” she said. declared on RMC. According to her, the “government is too right-wing and does not reflect the aspirations of the French”.
A limited number of motions of censure?
However, there is no limit to the number of motions that can be filed. The only rules provide that each text must be signed by one tenth of the elected representatives of the National Assembly, i.e. 58 deputies, and that each elected representative cannot sign more than three motions of censure per parliamentary session, that is to say between October and June. The left has 193 elected officials, it can alone table up to nine motions of censure. RN elected officials can defend at least six of them and that’s without counting on the other deputies who could sign motions.