PARTICIPATION. For the first round of the 2022 presidential election, the participation rate is finally 73.69% according to the Ministry of the Interior.
[Mis à jour le 11 avril 2022 à 13h30] We know the participation rate in the first round of the 2022 presidential election. The Ministry of the Interior published this Monday, April 11 the complete results of this first round, data including participation figures. Verdict: the participation rate is 73.69%, close to the estimates given Sunday evening by the pollsters. The Elabe Institute for BFM TV had thus predicted a rate of 73%. This figure of 73.69% is slightly lower than in the 2017 election when turnout reached 77.80%. In the second round, Emmanuel Macron (LREM) will face Marine Le Pen (RN) for a remake of the 2017 duel. In 2022, abstention, measured at 27.31%, is therefore between that measured in 2002 (28 %) and 2017 (23.20%).
What was the turnout at 5 p.m.?
The turnout at 5 p.m. was 65%. A figure down compared to 2017 (69.42%), as well as in 2012 (70.59%). The departments in which voters had mainly mobilized before 5 p.m. were Dordogne (75.26%) followed closely by Aveyron (73.93%) then Gers (73.71%). At 5 p.m., the French people rather shunned the ballot boxes on the side of the overseas departments. Similarly, some metropolitan departments have a relatively low participation rate such as Paris (52.17%) or Seine-Saint-Denis (51.71%). For its part, Haute-Corse is the worst student with “only” 51.23% participation at 5 p.m. this Sunday, April 10, 2022. The participation rate should reach 73.5% tonight on the strokes of 8 p.m. based on Ipsos-Sopra Steria estimates for Le Parisien. In 2017, attendance was 77.77% according to Le Parisien. It should therefore be down for this presidential election of 2022.
Remember that the participation in the vote, in France, whatever its level, cannot allow the official calling into question of an election. But it decreases over the years, and this is nothing new. This Sunday, the fear of a particularly low turnout, and therefore of record abstention, hangs over this first round of the presidential election. According to certain polling institutes, approximately one in three eligible voters does not intend to move to slip a ballot into the ballot box on Sunday April 10, 2022, even if it is white: all those people who do not will not move will therefore reduce the participation rate. This rate therefore promises to be even lower than that of the first round of the 2017 election, where it was 77.77% in the first round and 74.56% in the second, but which is approaching (or even could beat) of the record for the first round of 2002, where 11,689,956 voters had not taken part in the ballot, causing the participation rate to plummet to 71.60%. He thus lost 6.8% compared to the previous election of 1995, where the participation score was 78.38% in the first round. More recently, for the regional elections of June 2021, the final participation rate in the second round was 34.69%, which is extremely low (note however that the participation in the regional and departmental elections is always lower than the participation in the presidential election).
The first trends at 12 o’clock
Ile-de-France is lagging behind in the turnout at 12 p.m., according to the first figures communicated by the Ministry of the Interior. Indeed, a certain cleavage is notable with the departments of the South-West which moved to the polls on this morning of April 10, 2022. The Gers, the Landes or the Pyrénées Atlantiques are seen as “good students”. It should also be noted that the number of voters in the overseas departments is extremely low at midday. The participation rate displayed in Saint-Martin is 12.07% but remains higher than the 2017 election with only 9.57% participation at midday. The participation rate is 17.31% in Guadeloupe and 21.44% in Saint Barthelemy.
The first trends appeared with the release of the first figures for participation at noon, communicated by the Ministry of the Interior. A significant gap is visible between the departments of Ile-de-France where the French shunned the ballot box, unlike some rural departments. Voters mobilized more in Saône-et-Loire with a turnout of 39.05%, in Gers (37.71%) and in Ardèche (35.55%). The department of Seine-Saint-Denis has the lowest participation rate at 12 p.m. with 14.71%. Voters should be more numerous this afternoon, which could compensate for this significant delay in the next official turnout figures published at 5 p.m. In general, turnout has dropped in France compared to the 2017 election (28.54%) compared to 25.48% this year. In 2022, the turnout recorded at noon is the lowest rate posted since the 2002 presidential election.
The Ministry of the Interior has just officially communicated on the level of participation: at noon, the participation rate is 25.48% in France. A low level, but which will obviously increase throughout the day. In 2017, during the previous presidential election, the turnout at noon was 28.54%, which therefore shows interest at half mast at the start of the ballot. According to the OpinionWay-Kéa Partners barometer for “Les Echos” published on Monday April 4, 2022, only 66% of French people said they were sure to vote this Sunday. We were therefore heading towards a considerably low turnout for the first round of a presidential election, which is historically the one that brings together the most voters and mobilizes the most citizens in the polling stations.
According to a study by BVA published on March 21, it is especially the 25-34 who did not intend to move (44% of them). But why are so many French people sulking to go democratic? First reason, according to the polling institute, “they do not expect much from this election” and believe “that it will not change anything in their daily lives.” Second reason, specific to the 2022 ballot given the polls, “the impression that the betting is already done”, Emmanuel Macron being given a clear lead in the first round and winning in all cases in the second. Finally, “the impression that their vote does not count” discourages some voters from moving, when a certain section declares “that no candidate represents [leurs] ideas.”