PRESIDENTIAL POLLS. Can Marine Le Pen beat Emmanuel Macron? It is a possibility, the polls give the far-right candidate between 46 and 49% of the voting intentions in the 2nd round of the 2022 presidential election, within the margin of error.
The results of the 1st round of the presidential election near you
Sunday April 24, at 8 p.m., French citizens will have chosen who will be at the Elysée for the next 5 years: either Emmanuel Macron or Marine Le Pen. By then, the two candidates will have their eyes glued to the 2nd round polls. Find on this article the last poll published on the 2nd round of the presidential election and our compiler of surveys of voting intentions on Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen.
Never had a far-right candidate reached such levels in the polls before Marine Le Pen. The leader of the National Rally has been credited, for weeks, with more than 45% of the voting intentions. The dynamic is even favorable to him, since since the beginning of March, his score is estimated at potentially between 47 and 49% against Emmanuel Macron in the 2nd round of the 2022 presidential election.
What do the polls say about this revenge between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, five years after an identical second round in 2017? Even before the first round of this 2022 presidential election was held, polls had been published in the event of a second round confrontation in the presidential election between Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron.
All the polls carried out before the first round gave Emmanuel Macron the winner. These pre-first round polls are gradually being supplemented by new studies carried out since Sunday, April 10, after the proclamation of the results.
Vote report polls
A Odoxa survey published on April 10 draws up the sociology of the respective electorates of Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron: the popular categories and the 25-34 year olds position themselves more for Marine Le Pen while the wealthiest French people and the over 65s turn to Emmanuel Macron at more than 50%.
The poll Ifop carried out for TFI-LCI at the end of the first round specifies the voting intentions of voters who did not vote for the two candidates in the first round, a means of obtaining a first vision of the possible carryovers of votes in view of the second round. Thus the electorate of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, third man in this presidential election, is very divided: 33% intend to vote for Emmanuel Macron against 23% for Marine Le Pen while 44% lean for a blank vote, zero or abstention.
The electorate of Valérie Pécresse also appears divided: Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen would both obtain 35% of the voting intentions on this electorate when 30% do not position themselves. Unsurprisingly, Eric Zemmour’s electorate leans massively towards Marine Le Pen with 76% of voting intentions against only 4% for Marine Le Pen. It is the electorate of the EELV candidate Yannick Jadot who is most favorable to Emmanuel Macron. According to this Ifop poll carried out on Sunday April 10 in the evening, they are 56% to position themselves for a vote in favor of the candidate LREM against 6% for Marine Le Pen. 38% lean towards a blank, null or abstention vote.