Israel: the infernal spiral in the Middle East is set in motion – L’Express

Its shadow has hovered over the Middle East since October 7, 2023. With each brutal military intervention, with each fiery speech. We constantly feared “escalation”, here comes the regional war. This could have started in earnest on October 1 when, at dawn, the Israeli army launched ground incursions into southern Lebanon for a mano a mano unpredictable with Hezbollah, in which Israel lost its first soldiers the next day. Then, that same Tuesday, two Palestinians opened fire on the crowd in Tel Aviv, killing eight people, as a painful reminder of the internal threat that haunts the Jewish state.

The new dimension of this war was confirmed in the evening, during which Iran fired nearly 200 ballistic missiles towards Israel from its territory. Now is not just the time for climbing. “In Israel, the feeling dominates that Iran leaves us no other choice than to attack it on its territory, underlines Yonatan Freeman, specialist in international relations at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. Iran appears weakened by the heavy losses within Hezbollah and Hamas, the time is right to push it a little further before it regains its strength and can rebuild its militias.” The Israeli military and political establishment promises nothing else.

A coming Israeli response “probably devastating”

In April, Tehran took a first step by sending hundreds of missiles and drones from its territory to Israel. But the attack, widely anticipated and designed to do minimal damage, provoked only a limited response from the Jewish state. This time, Iran has changed the situation. “This aero-ballistic attack was much more massive than six months ago,” says David Khalfa, Israel specialist at the Jean-Jaurès Foundation and author of Israel-Palestine, Year Zero (published by Le bord de l’eau, released October 18). Nearly 200 ballistic missiles were fired (compared to 110 last April) and it took them around twelve minutes to travel the 2,000 kilometers that separate Iran from Israel. Ballistic missiles are much faster than the drones mainly used in the first attack and they carried much larger explosive charges. The nature of the targets also changed: it was not only a matter of targeting military bases, but also civilian homes and even the Ben Gurion international airport. It is an escalation which is no longer really controlled, from the Israeli point of view, and which will trigger a probably devastating response.”

Benyamin Netanyahu set the tone as soon as the alert ended in Israel, when he brought his cabinet together in front of the cameras. “Iran made a huge mistake and it will pay the price,” announced the Israeli Prime Minister, relegating the Gazan and Lebanese war grounds to the background. The mullahs’ regime is directly in the sights, after years of underground and proxy war. According to security sources, the Israeli army could attack in the coming days either Iranian nuclear installations, its military infrastructure, or its oil fields. Tehran also fears individual assassinations of regime officials, in a maneuver identical to the beheading of the Hezbollah staff.

In any case, Tehran cannot remain without a response. The infernal gear has started. “The Iranian regime, which is certainly led by fanatics but not by imbeciles, has very poorly assessed the risk, estimates David Khalfa. The Iranians underestimate Israel’s determination since October 7 to turn the table and leave of the balance of terror that Tehran and its regional Islamist proxies have wanted to impose on it over the past two decades.” In Jerusalem, the “hawks” assure that we must seize the opportunity to get rid of the threat of the Islamic Republic, or at least of its nuclear program.

Israel and the temptation of a new regional order

An open regional war would, however, be extremely risky for the Jewish state, already in combat on several fronts and exhausted after a year of war in the Gaza Strip. “Israel, increasingly emboldened, plans to confront Iran on all grounds in the Middle East in order to create a new regional order,” points out Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of the Middle East program at the European Council on Foreign Relations. But this illusion is dangerous: despite Iran’s current weaknesses, such a strategy would be perceived as an existential threat by Tehran and its allies, which would provoke a regional war and could also precipitate the militarization of its nuclear program. Military successes in the short term could accelerate a catastrophe in the medium term.

The question of resources also arises for the Hebrew State which, despite its 160,000 soldiers and 400,000 reservists, is suffering its first human losses in Lebanon for twenty years. “The Israeli army has just embarked on a second front which will not be easy, as Hezbollah remains a formidable militia despite its weakening, assures David Khalfa. A regional confrontation would also mean that Israel would be regularly subjected to aeroballistic attacks and therefore its international airport would be closed. Attacks by Iran’s proxies would also be much more frequent and much more massive, although this network would be weakened. As we commemorate the deaths of October 7, the impact of such operations on the morale of Israeli society cannot be underestimated.

The American presidential election on November 5

But in reality, no one on the international scene seems able to stop total war anymore. The decision for a regional explosion depends only on Jerusalem and Tehran. In Washington, all attention remains focused on the presidential election on November 5, for which American involvement in the Middle East will inevitably have consequences.

Weakened by an aging and departing president, the Biden administration has no choice but to support its historic Israeli partner and has placed two aircraft carriers in the region, but it can hardly launch a new war in the Middle East. Orient in this electoral period. “The United States is going through a delicate political period and will not be inclined to launch an offensive against Iran, at least not officially, estimates Yonatan Freeman. But they will be involved more discreetly, already by mobilizing to intercept Iranian threats after the upcoming Israeli attack, but also by providing intelligence to the Israelis on the targets to hit.” The regional explosion could then become global.