In the United States, the toll from Hurricane Helene has been revised upwards again, with at least 130 dead. Georgia and North Carolina have been particularly hard hit. Donald Trump did not fail to use drama in his campaign, especially since these two states are key states – considered to be able to swing one way or the other during the presidential election. Focus on North Carolina.
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Before 1964, North Carolina voted Democratic, but in the 1960s, white conservatives’ unease with civil rights laws shifted it to the Republican side. Barack Obama is the only Democrat to have won since then, in 2008, but by barely 14,000 votes. However, this very little room for maneuver is also found when North Carolina votes Republican, and that is why the Democrats think that at one point, they will end up winning again.
Especially since the population of this state is changing little by little: “ It is a state that has a growing populationexplains the specialist in UNITED STATESLauric Henneton, and this growing population is both a black population, but also a qualified population who work in research, in engineering, who work in fairly technical careers. She tends to vote Democratic. »
A conservative rural population
This new population mainly goes to cities and their suburbs. But the Republicans can count on a still significant rural population, “ less and less majority, but which always compensates, sometimes at the margin, the growth of cities », specifies Lauric Henneton, speaking of the “ resilience » of a rural, conservative and obviously religious America.
“ It is in the southern states, what is called the “Bible Belt”, the Bible belt, and this is accompanied by a vote mainly dominated by religious conservatism, and therefore by a whole range of causes such as opposition to abortion or the rights of sexual minorities. And we have a voter profile that is not necessarily Trumpist, but at least conservative and Republican », Continues the specialist from the United States.
The main campaign themes
At the national level, the major issues that interest voters are the economy (far ahead), immigration and abortion. North Carolina shares a number of them: in the prosperous suburbs, particularly among women, there is sensitivity to such issues as abortion, IVF, etc. But the theme is actually cross-cutting – in every state where we find these kinds of populations. Concern about purchasing power and the economy is found everywhere at the national level – even if in North Carolina there is no concern about job creation, since on this point the State is already very dynamic.
As for the theme of immigration, put forward by the Republicans, “ it’s quite ambivalent »: North Carolina is not Texas, it has no external border, and the foreign population it attracts is rather qualified.
However, explains Lauric Henneton, if immigration is not a problem for a rather urban and educated population, for a rural and conservative population ” who feels more and more dispossessed of her country and her state, as long as she is fed conservative media, there are no longer any geographical boundaries “. The themes therefore become in a way universal, and this Republican obsession with immigration is the same everywhere in the country, as long as we listen to these programs.
Will current events play a role?
The Democrats believe that a Trumpist could, despite himself, allow them to win: Mark Robinson. This candidate for governor of North Carolina has been caught up in a scandal for several days – shocking comments on Nazism and slavery made on a pornographic site. Democrats hope that this affair will affect the vote in the presidential election, because the two elections take place on the same day.
We will also have to see how aid is organized in this state, the most affected by Hurricane Helene. Monday, during a campaign trip to Georgia, Donald Trump accused North Carolina Democratic officials of “ deliberately not helping people in republican areas “. This was denied by a very virulent Joe Biden who will go there on Wednesday.
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