Israel’s offensive in Lebanon and Hezbollah’s response continue. While Iran accuses the Jewish state of wanting to “expand” the conflict, a generalization of the war could serve the interests of one of the belligerents.
Israel vows to fight Hezbollah “until victory.” This statement made by the Israeli authorities, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly on September 27, after the start of massive attacks launched against Lebanon, raises fears of an escalation of the conflict and especially its extension to the region. of the Middle East. The head of European diplomacy Josep Borrell estimated the situation “on the verge of total war” a few days earlier.
The determination of the Jewish state to defeat the Lebanese and pro-Iranian Islamist movement is such that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has rejected the idea of an “immediate 21-day ceasefire” despite being encouraged by the France, the United States which is Israel’s main ally, and the Arab countries. On the contrary, the leader promises to fight “with all the force necessary”. But he matches actions with words, since Monday, September 23, dozens of Israeli strikes have affected the south and east of Lebanon, in addition to the capital Beirut, and have left more than 700 dead according to the latest report of the Lebanese authorities.
Israel, however, claims to only target areas of the country controlled by Hezbollah, i.e. a large southern part where the majority of fire is concentrated and the eastern half of the country. To justify the violence of the attacks of Operation “Northern Arrows”, the Jewish state says it wants to reassure the security of the Israeli border with Lebanon, along the UN blue line to allow the 60,000 to 70,000 Israeli civilians evacuated from the area to resettle there. But it goes without saying that the Jewish state is acting in its interest by weakening Hezbollah, Iran’s armed hand in Lebanon. In continuing its operation, the Israeli army indicated that it was preparing a possible land “entry” of its soldiers into Lebanon. “We are winning,” said Benjamin Netanyahu during his speech to the UN General Assembly on Friday, September 27. And the Prime Minister added with regard to Iran: “If you attack us, we will respond.”
Israel accused of trying to “expand” the conflict
With the intensification of strikes against Lebanon, Israel would seek to “regionalize the conflict” according to the analysis of Didier Billion, deputy director at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (Iris), with the Parisian. “Israel wants to push Hezbollah into a serious mistake” capable of inflaming the conflict and placing the label of attacked country rather than aggressor country on Israel. “In this hypothesis, the support of Westerners [à l’Etat hébreu] would become automatic and unconditional again” adds the specialist.
The Lebanese political scientist and former United Nations special envoy for Libya, Ghassan Salamé, also indicated in The Great Continent that Iran and its relay in Lebanon, Hezbollah, attribute to Israel the objective of triggering a generalized war. An analysis confirmed by the words of Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian who accused Israel of wanting to “expand” the war to the entire Middle Eastern region. The leader estimated that expanding confrontations “would not benefit anyone” and assured that Tehran’s objective is not to “destabilize” the region.
A total war would not suit Iran and its supporters due to a balance of power favorable to the Jewish state, according to the political scientist. If Hezbollah, which represents the largest non-state armed force in the world, still has a significant strike force, “the Israeli air force has obvious supremacy” explains Ghassan Salamé. The same goes for Tehran. People close to the Iranian government confirmed with the New York Times that the risks of a generalized war are too great for Iran, which is already economically weakened by American sanctions and the suspension of air links with several Western countries. Beyond Iran, all its regional relays such as Hezbollah, Hashd, Houthis, Hamas and Islamic Jihad would also suffer from a generalized war. Faced with Israel, Iran has an interest in supporting its allies as it does to multiply fronts against the Jewish state without directly entering into conflict.
If neither Hezbollah nor Iran want a generalized war according to Ghassan Salamé, they still organize strikes and responses against Israel to present dissuasive forces. “The challenge is to calibrate these reprisals in such a way as to avoid falling into what they consider to be a trap set for them, namely that of an escalation towards a generalized war,” specifies the political scientist and former special envoy of the ‘UN.
The hypothesis of nuclear escalation
Officially, Iran is not among the nuclear powers, but it is public knowledge that the country has been strengthening its arsenal since the discovery of an Iranian nuclear program in 2003. The head of American diplomacy Antony Blinken also considered that July that the country was able to produce fissile material for a nuclear weapon in “one to two weeks”. Iran’s nuclear capabilities were also estimated by the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), whose coordinator told EURACTIV : “As the country refuses to confirm or deny the possession of such weapons, little is known about the arsenal [d’Israël]but experts believe that the country can deploy nuclear weapons using missiles, submarines and aircraft.
The fact remains that Israel has nuclear weapons… like its American ally. “Israel is [d’ailleurs] very opaque on the circumstances in which it would use nuclear weapons, so it is difficult to know how close we could be to the use of nuclear weapons” according to the ICAN representative. The hypothesis of an attack nuclear weapons cannot be completely ruled out, but it does not seem to be on the table for the moment on either side. The use of nuclear weapons is indeed prohibited by the Nuclear Weapons Treaty. prohibition of nuclear weapons (TIAN) but this only binds the States which have ratified it and no nuclear force has signed the text. The fact remains that the first force to launch a nuclear attack would certainly be targeted by similar reprisals. would be held responsible and would face heavy sanctions from the international community.