In the second round, security policy and the far-right Marine Le Pen’s relations with Russia will certainly become bigger election themes than has been seen so far, writes Annastiina Heikkilä, ‘s French journalist.
The first round of the French presidential election seemed like a version of the 2017 election. For the second round, central liberal progressed Emmanuel Macron as well as the far right Marine Le Pen. Veteran candidate for the Radical Left Jean-Luc Mélenchon made a tough result.
The traditional, or former, ruling parties on the right and left are collapsing again.
The world political situation is however, different from five years ago. War is raging in Europe, and combating the Russian threat requires unity from Western leaders. The cost of living is rising, the climate catastrophe is imminent and the coronavirus pandemic is not over yet.
Another difference from the previous election is that Macron is now a president seeking a successor and not a great reformer seeking French leadership without his own party. He is a charismatic but controversial leader. Macron has raised France’s international profile, but in his home country he has been accused of being distant and elitist.
Emmanuel Macron leaves for the second round in any case as a clear pre-favorite. The difference in support between him and Le Pen seems to rise to almost five percentage points, higher than the last polls suggested.
Conservative candidate Valérie Pécressegreens Yannick Jadot and socialists Anne Hidalgo urged their supporters to vote for Macron in the second round. Mélenchon did not give Macron his direct support, but urged not to vote for Le Pen.
However, the combined result of Marine Le Pen and another far-right candidate, Éric Zemmour, was over 30 per cent. It is therefore greater than Macron’s support.
Macron himself recalled election night in his speech that the game is by no means clear. Marine Le Pen’s final letter has been tough and the far-right chairman is better prepared for the second round of election exams than five years ago. He has toured extensively around France in recent weeks while Macron’s campaigning has been limited.
So far, Le Pen has avoided the toughest questions about his ties to Russia by focusing on purchasing power in his election campaign. It is certain that in the second round of examinations, security policy, Russia’s election funding for Le Pen and the close relationship of the French far right with the regime of President Vladimir Putin will lead to more specific reasons.
France, for its part, is leaving for the second round badly distributed. Voters in Macron, Le Pen and Mélenchnon seem to be light years apart.
The next president should be able to reconcile the different realities of the electorate – and on that side, save Europe from war, climate destruction and poverty.