Sri Lankans go to the polls on Saturday, September 21, to elect a new president, two years after the Rajapaksa clan fell from power. According to the specialist on this country, the emeritus academic Éric Meyer, the stakes of this election will be essentially economic. The outgoing interim president will face 38 candidates. Analysis.
This election will be the first since the unprecedented economic crisis that erupted two years ago, leading the country into a regime crisis. Long supported by an educated and dynamic middle class, this island-state in South Asia had then entered a process of descent into hell under the combined effect of government negligence and the Covid-19 health crisis.
In July 2022, after months of street protests sparked by food and fuel shortages, a citizens’ revolution, marked by the capture of the presidential palace in Colombo, ousted President Gotabaya Rajapaksa from power. The latter was forced to flee abroad with his family.
” In power for almost two decades, the Rajapaksa clan had set up a political system undermined by corruption and nepotism, which led Sri Lanka to economic bankruptcy and default on its colossal external debt, explains Eric Meyer, specialist in South AsiaThe economy was in a state of collapse. With the central bank’s foreign currency reserves depleted, the country could no longer import basic necessities. People were forced to wait in queues for hours or even days to buy powdered milk, sugar or fuel.. »
The power vacuum at the top of the state led Parliament to appoint an interim president in the person of Ranil Wickremesinghe. A man of the inner circle who entered politics in the 1970s and was six times Prime Minister, the latter was tasked with negotiating a rescue plan for the country with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This was to restore public finances, while waiting to obtain debt rescheduling from bilateral lenders, including China.
Under the Caudine Forks of the IMF
In March 2023, after several months of laborious negotiations, the Sri Lankan administration led by the interim president managed to negotiate with the IMF a loan of 2.9 billion dollars in exchange for the implementation of severe austerity measures and reforms to avoid a new crisis.
The IMF’s assistance is allowing the country to gradually emerge from the financial crisis, control inflation, which had reached 70% in September 2022, and return to economic growth. Negative in 2022 with a recession of 7.3%, it has rebounded with the return of tourists, whose number could amount to some 2 million in the years before the economic crisis.
However, it cannot be said that the social situation has really improved. All observers note the general impoverishment of the country. The drastic austerity measures imposed by the IMF weigh heavily on low-income households, who are the first to be affected by deep cuts in government social spending, the reduction of subsidies on basic necessities such as water, electricity, fuel oil, the doubling of taxes, and the freezing of jobs,” underlines French academic Eric Meyer. And to add: “What has been strengthened is the country’s capacity to import basic necessities, particularly hydrocarbons and gas via Russia thanks to India. It must be acknowledged that two years after the appointment of an interim government, the situation is less dramatic, but growth remains fragile and does not benefit the most deprived. “.
The stakes of the presidential election
It is in this context of a slow recovery in economic activity that the next presidential election will take place. The government would have liked to postpone this vote, as it did for the local elections last year, arguing that in times of ” lean cows “The funds were to be allocated primarily to paying civil servants’ salaries and pensions. Critics say the authorities have refused to release the funds for local elections scheduled for 2023 because they fear punishment for their authoritarian management of the economy.
Still, two years after the most serious economic crisis the country has ever known, the economy was at the heart of the presidential campaign. The main issue of this election, analysis Eric Meyerit is the economic situation which is certainly less dramatic today than it was two years ago, but the social situation has not improved at all. Moreover, the electoral campaign allowed the different candidates to express their very different opinions on the economy and on the reforms which were negotiated with the IMF. Some candidates have suggested that if they are elected, they will renegotiate the terms of the agreement with the IMF. »
The other issue in this presidential election, according to Eric Meyer’s analysis of the situation, is political and concerns the fate of the Tamil and Muslim minorities, particularly in the north and east of the island. Since the end of the bloody civil war that pitted the Sinhalese majority government against the Tamil population of Hindu and Muslim obedience for almost three decades (1983-2009), there have been no real attempts at reconciliation between the two populations. This has ” left the wound of civil war open in the psyche of the Sri Lankan nation “, laments the academic.
The Tamil population wants to turn the page, and is asking the presidential candidates to commit, in return for their votes, to the application of the 13th amendment of the Constitution. This provides for a devolution of powers to minorities, in matters of justice, security and education.
The full implementation of this amendment, which has been in the Sri Lankan Constitution since 1987 and which provides in particular for the recognition of Tamil as one of the official languages of the country, is regularly mentioned by politicians, especially during election campaigns. But are minds ready for its implementation?
Leading trio
Of the 39 candidates validated by the electoral commission for the presidential election of September 21, three appear to be serious contenders. This leading trio is composed of the outgoing president Ranil Wickremesinghe – at 75, he is a candidate for his own succession -, Sajith Premadasa – at 57, he is leader of the parliamentary opposition, of liberal-socialist leanings – and finally Anura Kumara Dissanayaka – a former Marxist, long pro-Chinese, then Castroist, before establishing himself as the true leader of the Sri Lankan left.
” Involved in the revolutionary movement that caused much bloodshed in the 1980s, the man has since watered down his stance.specifies Eric Meyer. It is particularly popular among young people, the same people who participated in the Aragalaya movement two years ago. [« combat »] which brought down the corrupt and hated Rajapaksa regime. »
Credited with between 40% and 50% of voting intentions, Anura Kumara Dissanayaka is courted by foreign chancelleries, particularly by the Indians and the Chinese. On his return from a recent trip to India at the invitation of New Delhi, the leader took his supporters by surprise by praising foreign investors whom he called on to actively participate in the development of cutting-edge sectors in Sri Lanka.
Despite attempts to ” standardization “From the profile of their leader and their movement (the National People’s Power coalition, the NPP), the man continues to inspire fear. Particularly among minorities, because of his past as a pro-Sinhalese nationalist and his refusal to implement the entirety of the 13th amendment of the Constitution which proposes to grant very great autonomy to the provincial councils.
Opposition parliamentary candidate Sujit Premadasa, like outgoing President Ranil Wickremesinghe, say they are committed to the cause of minorities and have spoken out in favour of greater autonomy for the Tamil minority. The latter is campaigning for the recognition of their specificities within the federal framework of Sri Lanka.
Ideologically aligned, Premadasa and Wickremesinghe campaigned on the IMF bailout. Leftist Dissanayaka also made pledges to that effect, while proposing to return to the IMF to renegotiate the deal at the margins, particularly on its privatization of state-owned enterprises and tax pressure components.
So, what direction is Sri Lanka taking or will it take? I will be hard pressed to answer you.replies Eric Meyer. It’s really the unknown. There’s no clear evolution at all that’s emerging. “This unknown is characterized, according to the specialist, by the population’s distrust of the traditional political class (” parliamentarians are totally discredited “), the loss of influence of the great political families who have dominated the country since independence (the Banadarnaike, the Premadasa, the Rajapaksa, etc.).
Only the left continues to enjoy a certain aura thanks to the prestige of former revolutionaries such as Dissanayaka and his National People’s Power. Will this be enough to restore faith in politics, in its capacity to change life? Nothing is less certain! »
*Eric-Paul Meyer is professor emeritus at the Institute of Oriental Languages in Paris and a specialist in the Indian subcontinent.