While the next Minister of Economy has not yet been appointed, the broad outlines of his flagship law seem to have already been set. Prime Minister Michel Barnier has sent MPs the roadmap for the 2025 budget, largely shaped by the previous government led by Gabriel Attal. As every year, there are winners and losers.
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A few guidelines, spending caps and a 13-page explanatory document consulted by RFI: that’s all that French MPs know about the next budget for now. While waiting for a minister ofEconomy, who will have to refine all this, Matignon has published the intentions which will be the basis of the 2025 Finance Bill (PLF).
It is more or less the famous ” reversible budget ” inherited from the resigning government of Gabriel Attal. In the last line of the table, we find the same amount as a year ago: 492 billion euros. But in the rest of the boxes, the figures are moving. A rebalancing of expenditure that gives a glimpse of the priorities for the coming year.
Reinforced Defense
This is the big winner of the forecasts: the envelope of the armed forces would swell by 3.3 billion euros, for a total of 50.5 billion. This sovereign expenditure, provided for by the military programming law 2024-2030, should be used for rearmament, for the ” development of military investment » and to the « modernization of our armies ” explains Matignon.
In second place: the mission “ Ecology, sustainable development and mobility “, which would see its budget increase by 2.1 billion, for a total of 29.8 billion euros. Funds with a ” particularly significant dynamics in the financing of renewable energies “, we can read in the document.
A half-hearted victory for the Ministry ofEnvironmentwhich would also see a large part of its aid for the purchase of electric vehicles and the financing of energy renovations cut, the famous ” Prime Renov’ “.
The Ministry of Labor at the heart of the cuts
To finance all these increases, the government would multiply what it calls ” optimizations ” (meaning budget cuts). The main party concerned is the Ministry of Labor, which would lose 2.3 billion euros in credits.
The cuts would be driven by the fall in unemployment, which is at its lowest level in decades. The fewer unemployed people there are to support, the smaller the ministry’s budget needs to be. In addition to this favourable situation, apprenticeship contracts would also be cut to contribute to the austerity effort.
A budget of the same amount… with 10 billion less
In Bercy’s sights, there are also the Public Development Assistance missions which would plunge by 20% (-1.3 billion). The end of certain exceptional financial measures, such as the post-Covid-19 economic recovery plan (-2.3 billion), also make it possible to limit spending.
But the State’s first ally for making savings remains inflation. To keep up with the increase in prices, the 2025 Finance Bill should be increased by at least 2%. If this adjustment is not made, it is as if the budget were reduced by 10 billion euros.
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