This scene will never be forgotten by many Americans. On January 6, 2021, as the Electoral College met to certify the results of the presidential election, thousands of supporters of former President Donald Trump infiltrated the Capitol in an attempt to stop the process. In vain.
Four years later, the former Republican president is back, this time facing Kamala Harris, the Democratic vice president. With six weeks to go before the election, both camps are counting their points: all eyes are on a handful of key states – the famous “swing states” – that could swing the election one way or the other.
There are seven of them—Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—and they represent 93 electoral votes, or about 18% of the total. In most cases, Donald Trump did brilliantly in 2016, then lost in 2020, often by a few thousand votes. He now has fairly favorable poll numbers in several of these territories, but Kamala Harris is not done yet, as William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institute, explains.
In Arizona, the “swing county” in the “swing state”
“Eight or 10 years ago, no one would have predicted that Arizona would become a swing state,” Frey said. “Unlike the Old South, its allegiance to the Republican Party goes back to the very beginning of the 20th century, even before the civil rights movement.” It is true that between 1952 and 2016, this desert region bordered by California to the west and the Mexican border to the south almost always voted for a Republican candidate in presidential elections.
“You have to know that Arizona has a reputation for being a focal point for many white retirees from the Midwest, and they are often Republican voters,” the demographer analyzes. But in 2020, the state flipped and sent 11 Democratic electors to the Electoral College. Joe Biden won by a margin of 0.3 points – just 11,000 votes ahead – over his opponent.
To understand this turnaround, we need to look at one county in particular: Maricopa, a crooked, elbow-shaped territory the size of Normandy. It is home to Phoenix, Arizona’s capital, and its nearby suburbs, which account for about 60 percent of the local voting-age population. To win, you’d better have Maricopa in your pocket.
“It is a region with a strong Republican spirit embodied by figures like Barry Goldwater [NDLR : ancien sénateur et candidat malheureux à la présidentielle de 1964] or John McCain [l’adversaire de Barack Obama en 2008]”, explains William Frey. Indeed, between 1952 and 2012, the Republican Party almost always came out ahead of the Democratic Party by more than ten points. But the wind is changing. Today, “it is a very dynamic region, which welcomes a great diversity of Americans and more and more Latino immigrants and young people, often Californians, who are looking for a place where the cost of living is more reasonable; they represent an asset for the Democrats who succeeded in having senators and representatives elected to Congress there during the last elections.”
In Pennsylvania, the strength of the “Obama coalition”
Since Joe Biden’s withdrawal, Harris and Trump have been courting Pennsylvania. In two months, this state has been the most visited by both candidates. According to William Frey, “both candidates’ teams believe that victory there will be decisive. But Kamala Harris should have an advantage there: Pennsylvania is in fact part of what is called the “blue wall”, a group of industrial states in the Northeast that almost systematically vote Democrat. Since the 1990s, Pennsylvania has almost never voted for the Republican candidate.” With one exception: the election of Donald Trump in 2016.
Before that, Barack Obama had managed to rally support for his candidacy in 2008 and 2012. “Among Obama’s voters, there were mainly young people, women, highly educated Americans, blacks and Latinos,” explains the demographer. In these highly industrial states of the Northwest, Kamala Harris should be able to bring together all these groups, called the “Obama coalition.” But one question remains: voter turnout.
Heads, then: an advantage for Kamala Harris since Pennsylvania is a region that is demographically diversifying. Tails: a real handicap, since young people and racial minorities vote less than other communities. “We also know that in 2020, voters were strongly mobilized because with the Covid-19 pandemic, many states had facilitated remote voting, recalls William Frey. This is not the case this year and to win in Pennsylvania, Kamala Harris must succeed in mobilizing all the potential voters of the Democratic camp.”
This November, the state of Pittsburgh and Philadelphia will elect 19 electors. This is the fifth largest contingent within the Electoral College.
In Georgia, the transformation of Atlanta
The day after the 2020 election, Donald Trump calls the Georgia elections office, furious. “Get me 12,000 votes!” he orders local officials. The local government, in the hands of Republicans, will refuse to obey Trump’s whim. But it is nonetheless stunned. After years of Republican rule, Joe Biden wins by a few thousand votes. 16 additional Democratic electors join the Electoral College, and again, it is a historic victory—and the culmination of a demographic dynamic that favors the Democratic Party.
Like its neighbors, Georgia is a deeply Republican state. But Atlanta, its capital, has long been a Democratic haven. In this city that was the birthplace of Martin Luther King, one in two residents is black and 40% of its residents are aged 20 to 40, compared to 27% nationwide. These are parameters that are rather favorable to the victory of Democratic candidates.
“Since the pandemic, many Americans who lived in the Northeast have sought to flee the large coastal cities,” recalls William Frey, “and many have come to settle in Georgia, particularly in the metropolis of Atlanta. They are young white graduates, some Latinos, but mostly African-Americans. Today, this city has even become the preferred destination for blacks migrating within the United States.” Result: in thirty years, the metropolis has tripled in size. With more than 6 million inhabitants, it is now the sixth largest metropolitan area in the country, and according to UN projections, it should reach 8 million inhabitants by 2050.
“In most cities in the country, blacks were concentrated in the city centers and they didn’t have access to the suburban suburbs. There was a kind of housing segregation,” insists the demographer. “Atlanta opened up a little faster than the others and today, it is one of the most dynamic and diverse urban areas in the country.”
Atlanta’s massive expansion is increasing its electoral clout. In 1990, it represented just 45 percent of Georgians of voting age; today, it represents more than 55 percent. And as it has grown, some white suburbs that were firmly Republican have begun to shift. In 2020, Joe Biden led the densely populated counties of Cobb, Gwinnett and Henry by more than 10 points each.
Today, the stars seem aligned for Kamala Harris to win in Atlanta. But to repeat the miracle of 2020, she will have to mobilize her base, and especially African-American voters. A challenge, given that black people in the Old South have long been kept away from polling stations.
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