Michel Barnier, the new Prime Minister, is reportedly considering raising some taxes. But who would be affected?
“Is it possible not to increase the taxes ? Yes, and we must even lower them!” This sentence was pronounced by Michel Barnier himself. In an interview given to Echoes In 2021, the new Prime Minister claimed to want to reduce the tax burden on the French. But at the time, the man who has now become the oldest tenant of Matignon was only a candidate for the Republican nomination for the 2022 presidential election. Since then, he seems to have changed his tune. But to what extent?
Publicly, Michel Barnier has never indicated that he wants to increase taxes. The rumor has been growing for a few days after Gérald Darmanin reported to the media that the septuagenarian did not rule out increasing the level of taxation in the country. Enough to provoke a general outcry and indignation, although it could perhaps simply be an organized leak – to test the reactions and popularity of such choices – or even a political low blow.
In reality, according to what is circulating, the avenues that would be studied by the head of the future government would not concern the majority of households. What would he consider? Who could pay more? We take stock.
Will we pay more income tax?
Let’s rule out this hypothesis right away. According to the rumors that have been circulating since the beginning of the week, the idea is absolutely not to make the vast majority of French people pay more income tax. A person on minimum wage, 1800/2000 euros net or 3000 euros per month will not pay a cent more on the money earned through work. All political forces, right and left, rule out this possibility.
Will the supermarket, restaurant or electricity bill increase due to a VAT increase?
At the supermarket, in restaurants or even on the electricity bill, the bill is broken down into two parts: what is actually collected by the company and what it must pay to the State. This last part is the Value Added Tax (VAT). While its fixed rate is 20%, it is lowered to 5.5% in certain sectors (food and energy in particular). Could these exceptions be sacrificed and, thus, increase the amount of the bill paid by consumers?
Again, this does not seem to be a lever envisaged by Michel Barnier. Only the governor of the Bank of France has suggested that he would not be against this possibility. “Generally speaking, it is better for a tax to have a broad base – without too many holes and at a lower rate,” François Villeroy de Galhau told the Parisian.
Tax cuts about to be sacrificed?
For both individuals and professionals, France has a large number of schemes that allow you to reduce the amount you pay in taxes. However, some of them could be targeted by Michel Barnier and disappear shortly. The majority of French people can rest assured: there is no question of touching reductions linked to childcare, single parents or other…
The idea is rather to tackle the systems that cost a lot of money and that concern only a few people, but also those that are in contradiction with environmental objectives. The governor of the Bank of France sums it up: “Certain tax loopholes benefit large groups and the most privileged households more. And certain “brown” exemptions actually encourage the consumption of fossil energy.” This could notably concern the reduced taxation for non-road diesel, kerosene and maritime transport fuel, but also the reduced tax rate for diesel compared to gasoline. In 2022, these reduced taxes represented a shortfall, over the year, of 6 billion euros according to the Institute of Economics for Climate.
With the rich in the crosshairs, who could pay more taxes?
Increasing state revenue without impacting the budget of 99% of French people, the idea therefore has, finally, something to seduce. To do this, it is the thickest wallets that would be in the taxman’s sights, with the return of an iconic device: the solidarity tax on wealth (ISF). Abolished by Emmanuel Macron in 2017, it concerned 358,198 households and had brought in, last year, a little more than 5 billion euros in the coffers of the Public Treasury. The replacement device – the real estate wealth tax (IFI) – turns out to be a much smaller tax windfall: “only” 175,980 households have to pay it, for a total revenue of 1.9 billion euros in 2023. 3 billion less income: not a straw, when we know that we have to find 20 per year now.
While this measure seems to be a sign of openness to the left that promotes this idea, it has had the problem of alienating the Macronists and the Republicans. As for the National Rally, it has said it is in favor of a tax on financial wealth. However, Michel Barnier has never spoken publicly about such a project, which would reverse a flagship measure of the first five-year term.
More taxes to pay for companies…?
Emmanuel Macron has been boasting about it since his arrival at the Elysée: the reduction in corporate taxes has never been so significant and effective for the economy. Between 2017 and 2022, the President of the Republic drastically reduced tax levies on corporate profits. When he arrived, the State took a third of the profits. For 1000 euros of profits, 333 had to be paid back to the Public Treasury. Now, the bill is only 25%, or 250 euros for 1000 euros earned.
Between 2017 and 2022, 11 billion euros (cumulative over the five years) less were collected by the tax authorities. Enough to offer new room for maneuver to companies to invest, while emptying the State coffers. But that’s not all: the tax on production has also been drastically reduced.
These two levers seem to constitute, in Michel Barnier’s eyes, a significant financial resource. “Michel Barnier is very tempted to look for ways to save money by going to corporate tax,” it was slipped into the Parisian.
The increase in corporate tax seems to be under consideration, but no new level of taxation has yet been proposed, of course. Especially since this carries the risk of a drop in investment, and therefore in hiring, which could increase unemployment, and therefore… government spending.
…and a new corporate tax?
Furthermore, Gabriel Attal’s successor “is in favour of a tax on excess profits” according to Laurent Wauquiez, LR deputy and head of the right-wing group in the Assembly, quoted by The Parisian. Currently, such a tax has been in force, since 2024, on motorway and airport concessionaires. The State deducts part of the excess profits received compared to the forecasts included in the concession contract.
Michel Barnier could extend it to energy companies and take up the provisions in force: a rate of 4.6% applied to operating revenues exceeding 120 million euros. But here again, these are only suppositions.
Moreover, The Echoes And Agefi are putting forward other ideas: that of a new tax on EDF, Engie and TotalEnergie, but also the end of the advantageous tax regime for CMA CGM, whose boss (Rodolphe Saadé) is close to Emmanuel Macron.