There was an outcry among the moderate cheerleaders when Finance Minister Elisabeth Svantesson (M) announced a year ago that the break-even point for state tax would not be calculated with inflation. But this autumn they are likely to give the thumbs up. Of the 60 billion in reform space, roughly 23 billion net goes to various tax cuts. Mention can be made of abolished flight tax, reduced tax on fuel and a tax-free basic level of ISK. But the largest share goes to income tax reductions – a total of just over 18 billion.
And it is those who earn the most who get the biggest refills in their wallets. For someone with a monthly salary of 125,000, the tax reduction will be close to 3,000 kroner, while someone who earns 25,000 will get just over 150 kroner.
It is a daring distribution profile that gives the opposition an open target when, as usual, they want to attack the Tidö parties for an economic policy that mainly benefits high income earners.
According to Elisabeth Svantesson, lower taxes for high income earners means that more people choose to work a little more and that this in turn increases growth. But it can be difficult to convince voters of the benefits when it is so obvious that it is those who earn the most who also receive the most in kroner and ören.
“Painting in bright colors”
At the same time, the government and especially the Moderates would like to have a left-right conflict about economic policy. It can benefit both the Moderates and the Social Democrats, but disadvantage the Sweden Democrats, who have a weak position when it comes to economic policy.
Finance Minister Elisabeth Svantesson paints the future in bright colors. But the question is how many voters recognize themselves. Of course inflation has fallen back but prices are still high, growth is at the bottom of the EU and unemployment is the highest in ten years apart from the pandemic years.
But there are two years to go until the election and if the forecasts hold, the recession will be over by 2026. And with lower mortgage rates likely to be more felt in people’s wallets than the working tax credits, it is not impossible that voters will then say yes to the government so important question: Are you better off now than you were four years ago?