A specialist in the Arab-Muslim world and the various Islamist groups in the region, Bernard Haykel is a professor in the Department of Near Eastern Studies at Princeton University in the United States. For L’Express, he deciphers the consequences of the attacks of the last two days against members of Hezbollah in Lebanon.
L’Express: After the beeperswalkie-talkies belonging to Hezbollah members exploded in Lebanon. Operationally, this is a spectacular victory for Israel. But what do you think the strategic consequences will be?
Bernard Haykel: In recent months, Israel had already assassinated Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, and Hezbollah commander Fouad Chokr in Beirut. But this is a spectacular, unprecedented operation. The Israelis want to end the Hezbollah threat, because they want their population living in the north of the country to be able to return home. The fact that part of Israel has been evacuated means, in their eyes, that they have lost territory. This is unacceptable. It is as if in France, it had been necessary to evacuate the population of Alsace. There is a consensus on this subject in Israel. But we must also add to the equation the personal character of Benjamin Netanyahu, who intends to save his skin politically. In any case, there is a population traumatized by October 7, and which intends to prove that it is a country that does not want to be annihilated.
On the other hand, it is now clear that Hezbollah is quite weak. At the same time, it is a militia that dominates an entire country, Lebanon, and that possesses 150,000 rockets and missiles. They still have the capacity to cause harm against Israel. However, we must not forget that Hezbollah exists to protect Iran. It is not there for Lebanon, but to serve as the first line of defense for the Tehran regime. This is why Hezbollah never fully entered the war after October 7. Despite many deaths in its ranks and the fact that villages were destroyed in southern Lebanon, the Shiite movement did not want an escalation. But today, after this spectacular Israeli operation, they will appear weak and pathetic. However, Hezbollah has a reputation to manage. I do not know what its calculations will be after these attacks. But these leaders are perfectly capable of talking a lot without really acting, contenting themselves with symbolic actions. In any case, it is clear that the Israelis have “taken off the gloves” as they say in English. For them, this is an existential war. It is very serious.
Israel’s initial goal was to eliminate those responsible for October 7 in Gaza, in a strategy similar to that which followed the attack on the athletes in Munich in 1972. But the conflict has spread to the northern border with Lebanon. Are we heading for an endless war? Can Israel even take on Iran directly?
After the Munich bombing in 1972, Israel faced only Palestinian factions that were not professional, as is currently the case with Hezbollah and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. [milice du régime de Téhéran]. The PLO also did not have a state like Iran supporting it. Today, we have moved into a completely different dimension. At the same time, Israel is also much stronger than it was then, with ultramodern technological means. In Gaza, they lost only 300 soldiers, which seemed imaginable. Such an operation should have cost them thousands of fighters. The problem for Israel is that as long as the Iranian Islamic regime is there, it will subsidize militias, training and arming them. So it will be a never-ending war…
There were indirect discussions between the Americans and the Iranians in the spring. Are there no levers for negotiation?
The Americans tried to use the Chinese to negotiate with Iran. But it didn’t work. Today, the Iranian regime considers Joe Biden and the Democrats as weaklings, who are not really ready to wage war in the Middle East. Tehran therefore intends to take advantage of this situation. This is why the Tehran regime does not want Donald Trump to win the elections in November. It should be noted that Iran and Russia are not on the same page on this issue. The Iranians want a Democratic victory, while the Russians hope for Trump. China also prefers Kamala Harris. So there is a real divide within this alliance.
In any case, Israel is facing a strategic problem, which is Iran. Even if the IDF destroyed Hezbollah and Hamas, in five or ten years, these militias will return, with even more sophisticated weapons. All these operations that Israel is currently carrying out are therefore tactical, but they are not strategic solutions. In this context, bringing down the Iranian regime is a major objective of Israeli policy, while this is not the case for the United States so far. But if Trump returns to the White House, and he appoints someone like Mike Pompeo as Secretary of State, Israelis and Americans will be on the same position with regard to Iran. We must not forget that Pompeo is now obliged to travel with bodyguards even on American soil, because the Iranians have threatened him directly. For him, this is a very personal subject.
Against Hamas and now against Hezbollah, Israel has largely won on the military level, inflicting heavy losses on its adversaries. On the other hand, the Hebrew State seems to have totally lost the media battle at the international level…
There are a lot of civilians who have died in Gaza, with significant destruction. But in the West, we have also witnessed an ideological alliance between the woke left and the Islamists, with the former only considering Israel as a colonizing country, a country of “white” Jews facing “native” Palestinians. It is a strange reading grid, but it is very effective with young Westerners.
How do Sunni countries like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) or Jordan view these Israeli operations? Do they reinforce their desire to ally with Israel because of its military and technological advantage?
These regimes are torn. On the one hand, their people are very pro-Palestinian. So rhetorically, they have to talk about the tragedy of the Palestinians. But at the same time, as you point out, they see Israel’s military capability, but also the support of the United States that allowed it to withstand more than 300 Iranian missiles in April. If I were the leader of Saudi Arabia or the UAE, I would want to receive the same treatment as Israel, which was able to count on the dispatch of two American aircraft carriers to the region. These Sunni states have seen how an alliance with the United States guarantees their survival. If, after the end of the Gaza war, the cost for Saudi Arabia is to normalize its relations with the Israelis, the Saudis will pay the price. For them, national issues take precedence over all other considerations. On the one hand, they want this war in Gaza to end, and for Israel to promise a Palestinian state with fixed deadlines. But at the same time, they want to protect themselves against Iran and its militias.
On the other hand, there is a real threat to Jordan. This country has a large Palestinian population, with many sympathizers of Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood. The latter have just won the legislative elections. If I were Iran, I would do everything to bring down the Jordanian regime and replace it with an Islamist regime. This would allow to encircle not only Israel, but also Saudi Arabia. For the moment, the Jordanian monarchy has never really left power to the Muslim Brotherhood. But it is the main threat to it.
Neither Israel nor the United States seem capable of stopping the Houthis’ capacity to cause harm in Yemen, allies of Iran…
The Houthis are a Yemeni minority that is part of a social class, the Zaidis, who are descended from the prophet, and represent less than 10% of the country’s population. They have little legitimacy, but use their strength as well as their anti-Zionism. The Houthis are thus using this war in Gaza to strengthen their power inside Yemen. They will never give up. Even if the conflict in Gaza ends, the Houthis have found that their hostility to Israel and their ability to stop boat traffic in the Red Sea gives them global influence. They will undoubtedly try to tax ships passing through the region. The Americans have tried to use China, via Iran, to get the Houthis to stop their piracy operations. But China preferred to make a separate agreement with the Houthis, guaranteeing the safety of its ships.
In conclusion: is escalation inevitable in the Middle East?
Israel really wants to end this threat to its northern territory. There is a diplomatic way to end the conflict: for Hezbollah to accept the UN resolution that stipulates that its troops be withdrawn from the Israeli-Lebanese border, and for Israel to stop flying over Lebanon. But both sides have refused. Today, after these spectacular actions by Israel against Hezbollah, I do not see how we can avoid an escalation.
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