Russia is said to have moved 90 percent of their air bases away from areas where Ukrainian long-range missiles can reach them.
At the same time, Ukraine is waiting for the green light to use the weapons.
– It means a worsening threat picture from a Russian perspective, says former lieutenant colonel Jörgen Elfving to TV4 Nyheterna.
The bombers – which have been used against Ukraine and are part of Russia’s nuclear triad – are now being moved to other air bases beyond the range of an attack.
– It is obvious that Russia is doing this because if Ukraine now gets permission to use weapons against Russian territory, then air bases are a priority target, says former lieutenant colonel Jörgen Elfving to TV4 Nyheterna.
But moving the bombers is not done in the blink of an eye.
– It is a matter of making sure that there is enough fuel and air defense at the bases they are relocated to, says Elfving, who believes that the move also creates problems:
– If they now relocate the bomber flight further away, it will also take longer to attack a target in Ukraine. And that means that you can’t deploy the attacks as frequently as before.
Approval in secret
In a few weeks, Joe Biden and President Zelenskyy are expected to meet at the UN headquarters. There they may discuss the long-distance robots further. And even if Ukraine gets the green light, Jörgen Elfving believes that it will happen in secret.
– This kind of approval can come at any time and it is not certain that it will become public before Ukraine has carried out attacks with this type of weapon system, he says and does not rule out that it will be:
– If you look back at the US’s support for Ukraine, they have thought about which weapons systems to give Ukraine and have finally given their consent. We will likely see the same picture here. It takes a while and then you get consent.