(Finance) – “The PBO Council validates the macroeconomic trend forecasts for the years 2022-2025, sent by the MEF on 23 March and modified to take into account the findings made by the PBO on a previous version”. This is what we read in the letter in which the President of the Parliamentary Budget Office (UPB), Lilia Cavallaricommunicated to the presidents of the Chamber and the Senate thevalidation, on March 24, of the macroeconomic trend framework 2022-2025 presented in the Economic and Financial Document (DEF) 2022. The macroeconomic trend forecasts were transmitted by the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) on March 23, after having been modified to take into account the findings made by the PBO on a previous version.
The Board of the PBO decided to validate the trend forecasts transmitted by the MEF and also submitted to the other institutes that make up the UPB panel (CER, Prometeia, Ref-Ricerche, Oxford Economics, as well as UPB itself), as they are located in an acceptable range for the whole forecast horizon, albeit at the limit as regards 2022. However, they are recognized – observes the PBO – extraordinary elements of uncertaintymainly attributable to the conflict in Ukraine as well as the resurgence of the pandemic.
The forecasts – reads the communication – have been validated on the basis of information largely available in mid-March. Subsequent developments in the international context have been adverse, materializing some downside risks reported by the PBO.
There diffusion by Istat, on 4 April, of revisions to the annual national accounts on the other hand, it has no impact on validation, as it is based on the growth rates of macroeconomic variables starting from the year 2022.