In the diary which must rest on the mahogany wood of his desk, Vladimir Putin had to circle the date of May 9, 2022 to the point of puncturing the sheet. Its Western adversaries fear it in view of what the deadline embodies in Russian collective history. “May 9 is a particularly symbolic holiday for the country”, sums up to L’Express Carole Grimaud Potter, professor of geopolitics at the University of Montpellier and specialist in Russia. Celebrating the victory of the Russian army over Nazi Germany, this national holiday is a military and patriotic event that the Kremlin never misses to spread its power as much to its population as to the rest of the world. .
May 9 is the founding cement of the identity of the Russian identity. Every year, the population wears the ribbon of Saint-Georges, a fabric with orange and black stripes, a military symbol. A sumptuous military parade is celebrated in Red Square, Moscow. In 2015, for the 70th anniversary of the military victory, 16,000 soldiers marched. In the north, in Saint Petersburg, part of the fleet presented itself before the gilded palaces of the Tsars. “History has become a pivot of national cohesion. It brings generations and ethnic groups together around a consensus,” recalls the professor. Patriotism is valued there!” The founding narrative based on the sacrifice of the soldiers of the fatherland was essential in the construction of the post-Soviet state and the strengthening of social cohesion. “It is controlled and repeated by the Russian state which aims to strengthen the pride of the people,” she insists.
Humanitarian fears
Faced with the symbolic dimension of the event, Emmanuel Macron is convinced that it is scrutinized by the Russian generals, as an unsurpassable horizon. “It is almost certain that May 9 must be a day of victory for President Putin”, assured Friday April 8 on RTL the French president, candidate for his re-election. “This is something that has never been officially formulated by the Russian authorities”, tempers Carole Grimaud Potter. Victory or not, the celebrations will take place.”
Whatever the Russian military calendar, “the month that separates us from May 9 is decisive.” This makes the French Head of State fear the intensification of the bombardments and the increase in the destruction and human losses. “I think they will concentrate their efforts in the Donbass. We are going to experience very difficult scenes in the coming days and weeks. That is why we are doing everything in connection with Turkey, Greece and the Nations united to organize humanitarian operations”, he explained. A few hours earlier, on Friday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov had warned: Ukrainian fighters “will not be enough to stop our offensive and will not prevent us from achieving our objectives”.
“Denazification”
In a context where the war effort is justified by the “denazification” of neighboring Ukraine, the celebration of the national holiday takes on even more weight. “I don’t think the next few weeks will give rise to many diplomatic concessions from Russia, thought Emmanuel Macron on Friday. Each passing day and each scene of unbearable war makes the next day impossible. But there is no there will be no peace in Europe if we don’t have to build the day after.” For Carole Grimaud Potter, “it is undoubtedly a message sent to the Kremlin to set a timetable for resolution. The French president is trying to push Russia into negotiation.”
But, by controlling most of the information within its borders, the Russian power will manage to achieve a victory on May 9 whatever happens. If the war ends thanks to a diplomatic agreement or a military victory, it’s a safe bet that the holiday will be the occasion for a real parade to the glory of the Russian army.
If the soldiers are still on the front line, May 9 will be more of an opportunity to further strengthen the support of the population behind an institution that it already largely supports. Days play against Vladimir Putin. The longer the war lasts, the more doubts there will be about the usefulness of war. With this in mind, May 9 will be celebrated as a victory by Moscow. Either to legitimize the continuation of fighting in Ukraine, or to celebrate the strength of the Russian offensive.