When you win the lottery, you are asked to maintain a certain modesty. Ostentation is sometimes unwelcome. Short text message: this deputy from the right wing of Renaissance offers a friendly piece of advice to Laurent Wauquiez after the surprise nomination of Michel Barnier to Matignon: that his troops do not fall into arrogance and “victory by repechage”. With 47 deputies, Les Républicains (LR) would be ill-advised to claim any kind of hegemony. Message received? It is permissible to doubt it.
The new leader of the Republican Right (DR) group has a very subjective conception of mathematics. He assures Gabriel Attal that his camp must be represented in the government in proportion to its weight in Parliament. This is good, since the right has 132… senators. “But censorship is done in the Assembly,” the resigning Prime Minister retorts.
Political cultures at the antipodes
The Macronist is a touchy animal. Ministers are surprised not to have received any sign from the new LR Prime Minister. Several Renaissance deputies have not digested his speech during the transfer of power with Gabriel Attal. The Savoyard had the audacity to promise to “act” rather than “speak”, in an allusion to his predecessors. This “peremptory”, “presumptuous” tone, sometimes in “denigration”, was frankly not necessary, they say. Here is the return of the old right, governing by divine right under the Fifth Republic. It has been suffering defeats since 2012 and allows itself lessons from an old sage!
Macronie and the right. Two political cultures at opposite ends of the spectrum; a gentle mutual contempt. The former was built as a mirror image of the latter, attributing to itself the virtues of modernity. LR opposes its “experience” and “professionalism” in return, with a hint of arrogance. And yet, these two are inseparable. The French forced LR and the central bloc to come together in June 2022, thanks to the relative majority. By installing Michel Barnier at Matignon, Emmanuel Macron is urging them to move on to the next level. The marriage is looming: a government mixing Macronists and LR figures, Nicolas Sarkozy’s eternal dream. A curious union. Sometimes desired, given the ideological proximity of the two camps. Often feared, as it is written in the fog. But always awaited with fatalism, in this fragmented Assembly. “Barnier is not going to rely on just 46 LR deputies, we cannot do without the 46 LR deputies,” sums up a minister. QED.
A mole in the room?
On Tuesday, September 10, Michel Barnier presented himself to the Renaissance deputies, gathered in a seminar in Rosny-sur-Seine (Yvelines). He had been warned by an old acquaintance. “Don’t look for your troubles on the left or in the RN. They are in Attal’s group.” Among these deputies, surprised to see a weakened party leading the dance. Annoyed to be getting married to a party held responsible for the dissolution in view of its threat of censure in the fall. So, let’s get to the theater.
The Prime Minister shows his credentials to the Macronists, the first parliamentary group of the future coalition. He promises to respect the different sensitivities of the group – “I know that you have some, as there are some in my political family” – and swears not to ask for a “blank check”. And puts forward themes dear to his heart: European construction and gender equality. Oh surprise! These two subjects were discussed during a meeting of the Renaissance deputies’ group, shortly before Michel Barnier’s arrival. Could there be double agents in the room?
A few hours earlier, Gabriel Attal promised his flock to “never be in a blockage on principle” but to defend a “right to demand” from his successor. Let everyone interpret this statement as they wish, that is its raison d’être. We must deal with the polyphony inherent in Macronism. The right wing of Renaissance is satisfied to see LR settle into Matignon, a sign of a cultural victory. The left wing is ticking. From Michel Barnier, it remembers more the harsh remarks on immigration during the LR primary of 2021 than the European commitment. The others are waiting to see.
Already, the names of hated ministers are being cited. The protectionist Olivier Marleix? No thanks! The conservative Bruno Retailleau? Without me! The ideological divide between the two partners is relative. But the devil is in the details. In those famous “values” mentioned by Gérald Darmanin and Gabriel Attal. A symbolic reform of State Medical Aid (AME) is more divisive than a vast plan to reduce public spending. A grain of sand, and everything goes wrong. “Frankly, I am skeptical,” notes a minister loyal to Emmanuel Macron.
“Wauquiez is completely suffering, but he has no choice”
He too can curse the head of state. Laurent Wauquiez did not intend to participate in a coalition with a faltering Macronie, worn out by seven years in power. The appointment of Michel Barnier does not give him any latitude. The Prime Minister assured him that he would conduct government policy in complete autonomy and praises the merits of the LR legislative pact, a synthesis of proposals defended by the right. His troops want to rediscover the taste of power, deserted for twelve years. “He is completely suffering, but he has no choice,” notes a LR pillar. The wedding photo should definitely reveal a few strained smiles.
Behind the white robe, the knives are sharpening. Each camp promises to be uncompromising on respecting its political identity. Gérald Darmanin proposes to define “red lines”, the crossing of which would justify a group departure from the government. The left wing of Renaissance even evokes the nuclear weapon of the motion of censure. Who can believe it? Loyalty to the head of state and the fear of instability of Macronist voters make this scenario illusory. “We cannot abandon the president in the middle of nowhere. Everyone is constrained”, admits a deputy. And then, the Macronists are devoid of an opposition culture. Many want to be in control, even if it means dealing with LR. A deputy, in favor of an opposition cure, spoke about it this summer to Gabriel Attal. He was not receptive to this thesis, in the name of preserving the economic record of the Macronists.
Rather than a divorce, we expect to cause some domestic scenes. Here, amendments to influence the executive’s position. There, a relative assiduity in the chamber during strategic moments. “If there are no deputies in session, votes do not pass. I do not have the impression that Barnier realizes it”, notes a Renaissance executive. Everything will not be rosy.
“The former majority is an army of ponies”
The right will also be a demanding partner. Already, Laurent Wauquiez says he is attentive “to the guarantees for a real right-wing policy on the subjects that we consider fundamental”. The man wants to place right-wing figures in certain strategic ministries. A left-wing marcher in Beauvau, without ceremony. LR is thirsty for power. Will the party play the game of compromise? Or will it use the government as a showcase for its pure political offer? Parliamentary defeats can be political victories. Thus, the number 2 of LR, François-Xavier Bellamy, evokes the capacity of a right-wing Prime Minister to “play opinion against partisan tensions on a subject like immigration”. Tremors in sight. “The former majority is an army of ponies who only have the word ‘benevolence’ on their lips, they will see with Retailleau and Genevard what progressivism is”, already smiles a close friend of the head of state.
The Barnier experiment, at the mercy of the National Rally, is precarious. But a cultural battle is quietly taking shape around its scope. A combination of circumstances or the first stone of a union? “Michel Barnier is opening a path,” says LR MP for Haute-Loire Antoine Vermorel-Marques, close to the head of government: “the creation of a new UMP with the prospect of a joint candidacy of the right and the center in 2027 to beat Marine Le Pen.” The right wing of Renaissance says nothing else. The apostles of overcoming fear an erasure of the central bloc in favor of a “reconstitution of the left-right divide.” Will forced marriage one day be love?
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